How AI, space, and digital infrastructure reshape geopolitics and security

How AI, Space, and Digital Infrastructure Are Reshaping Geopolitics and Security

In the rapidly evolving landscape of global power, technological advancements—particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), space exploration, and digital infrastructure—are emerging as critical determinants of geopolitical stability and security. These domains are not only transforming traditional notions of military and economic power but also creating new arenas for competition, cooperation, and risk.

The Geopolitics of AI and AGI

Artificial intelligence has become a strategic battleground, with nations vying for dominance in the development and deployment of cutting-edge systems. China exemplifies this race through its ambition to lead in AI innovation, exemplified by initiatives like Qwen3.5, an advanced language model aimed at establishing digital sovereignty and setting international standards. Beijing's approach underscores a broader goal: digital independence and resilience against Western restrictions.

Meanwhile, Western countries and alliances such as the EU and the U.S. are pursuing cooperative frameworks and standards, exemplified by programs like "AIR – EU#6", which focus on aerospace, cyber defense, and autonomous AI. These efforts aim to counterbalance Chinese influence and promote ethical AI governance. However, the environmental and ethical challenges linked to AI—such as the significant energy consumption of large models and the development of autonomous weapons—have prompted calls for international norms and verification mechanisms to prevent escalation and ensure responsible development.

The emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) further complicates this landscape. As discussed in the RAND report, the potential rise of AGI could fundamentally reshape global security dynamics, creating new risks of miscalculation or unintended escalation if norms and governance structures are not established proactively. Experts emphasize the urgent need for international standards and verification protocols to mitigate these risks, as the destabilizing potential of advanced AI systems grows.

Space Governance and Extraterrestrial Security

Space exploration and utilization are increasingly intertwined with geopolitical strategy. Major powers such as the U.S., China, and Europe are investing heavily in lunar bases, asteroid mining, and space infrastructure. The European Space Agency (ESA) advocates for international governance frameworks to manage space resource utilization, prevent conflicts over extraterrestrial assets, and ensure sustainable development beyond Earth.

The establishment of space norms echoes the legacy of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty but faces new challenges as private companies and nations seek to extract resources and establish footholds on celestial bodies. The "Why Space Matters and How to Govern It" article highlights the importance of multilateral cooperation to avoid conflicts over these valuable assets, which could become new frontiers for geopolitical rivalry.

Digital Infrastructure: Subsea Cables, Critical Minerals, and Undersea Risks

Beneath the oceans, undersea communication cables form the backbone of global connectivity. These critical infrastructures face cyberattack and sabotage threats, prompting nations to enhance security measures. Protecting this vital infrastructure is paramount, as disruptions can have cascading effects on both civilian and military communications.

Simultaneously, competition over critical minerals—such as rare earth elements essential for renewables, electronics, and military hardware—is intensifying. Countries are securing resource-rich territories and investing in mining capacities to reduce dependency on single sources like China, which dominates many of these supply chains. This mineral race intersects with broader geopolitical tensions and underscores the importance of resilient supply chains.

Space and Undersea Frontiers as Security Domains

Beyond Earth's atmosphere and oceans, the Arctic presents new strategic opportunities due to melting ice and emerging shipping routes. Nations like Russia, China, and the U.S. are vying for influence, with initiatives like the 2019 proposal to purchase Greenland illustrating Arctic ambitions. The region's strategic importance is expected to grow as mineral deposits and shipping lanes become more accessible.

The Military-Technology Nexus and Emerging Risks

The convergence of military power and technological innovation—such as autonomous weapons and AI-powered defense systems—poses new risks. As highlighted in recent discussions, cyber threats and arms races could lead to miscalculations, escalating conflicts unintentionally. The 2026 FCCT panel emphasizes the need to establish international norms, verification measures, and confidence-building mechanisms to mitigate destabilization risks associated with these emerging capabilities.

Diplomatic Strategies and Long-Term Outlook

China’s diplomatic strategy continues to emphasize “winning by waiting,” expanding economic ties and regional influence while steadily enhancing military and technological capabilities. Its long-term goal appears to be regional and global dominance through a comprehensive approach integrating diplomacy, military modernization, and technological innovation.

The United States and its allies are focusing on strengthening security partnerships, multilateral forums, and innovative governance to preserve influence and promote collective security. Initiatives like the Quad and engagement with ASEAN aim to manage tensions and foster cooperative norms in these new domains.

Corporate and Legal Risks in a Geopolitical Context

The increasing geopolitical tensions and technological competition have significant implications for corporations. As detailed in recent studies, supply chain disruptions, resource nationalism, and regulatory scrutiny are elevating legal and strategic risks for companies involved in resource extraction, technology transfer, and cross-border investments. Firms are advised to enhance compliance protocols and monitor geopolitical developments closely to navigate this volatile landscape.

Conclusion

By 2026, the integration of AI, space governance, and digital infrastructure into the geopolitical fabric is reshaping security dynamics worldwide. Countries are competing in these new frontiers, but there remains a critical opportunity for cooperation—particularly in establishing norms and governance frameworks that can prevent conflict and promote shared stability. Success will depend on diplomatic resilience, technological responsibility, and resilient supply chains—key ingredients for navigating an increasingly interconnected and complex global order.