N2/A13/A14/1nm ramps & capex
Key Questions
What are TSMC's timelines for N2, A16, A14, and 1nm nodes?
N2 enters HVM in late 2025, A16 mass production begins in 4Q26, A14 is slated for 2028, and 1nm is targeted around 2030-31.
What capex levels is TSMC committing to for capacity expansion?
TSMC has guided 2026 capex at $52-56B (upper end confirmed), approved $31.3B in board appropriations, and committed $100B overall, with Goldman Sachs projecting $78B for 2027.
How does Samsung's 1.4nm roadmap compare to TSMC's advanced nodes?
Samsung reaffirmed 1.4nm mass production in 2029 with SF1.4+ for 2030, directly competing with TSMC's A16 and future nodes, though execution risk remains higher for Samsung.
What global expansion plans does TSMC have for N3 capacity?
N3 expansion includes Taiwan in H1 2027, Arizona in H2 2027, and Japan in 2028, with 5nm tools being converted to 3nm and N3 margins expected to exceed the corporate average in H2 2026.
Which customers are validating TSMC's leading-edge AI demand?
Marvell is in talks for A14 by 2028, and Socionext plans an A14 tapeout in September 2026 for a multi-core chiplet targeting datacenter AI applications.
N2 HVM late 2025; A16 mass production 4Q26; A14 2028; 1nm ~2030-31. 2026 capex $52-56B, upper end confirmed. TSMC commits $100B to capacity expansion. Goldman Sachs projects $150B capex plan. Marvell in talks for A14 by 2028. TSMC nearing $2.35T market cap. May board approved $31.3B capex appropriations. Samsung announced plans for 1.4nm mass production in 2029, a direct competitive signal for TSMC's A16 and future nodes, though Samsung's execution risk remains high. Samsung reaffirms 1.4nm in 2029, SF1.4+ for 2030, with DTCO gains and SRAM expansion; still lags TSMC's A14 timeline. TSMC's global N3 expansion plan: Taiwan H1 2027, Arizona H2 2027, Japan 2028; converting 5nm tools to 3nm; N3 margin crossing corporate average H2 2026. Socionext taping out multi-core chiplet on TSMC A14 in Sep 2026 validates leading-edge adoption for AI datacenter. Taiwan approved TSMC's $20B capital injection for Arizona. New: Goldman Sachs raised TSMC 2027 capex to $78B, confirming AI arms race; 2nm ramp tracking 45% higher than 3nm; CoWoS capacity doubling. Latest (Jul 7): Citi expects TSMC to raise 2026 growth outlook and sees capex of $75-80B, adding to the capex expansion narrative.