N2 (2nm) acceleration & capex/tool risks
Key Questions
What are TSMC's yields and production timeline for 2nm (N2)?
TSMC achieved 65-75% yields on N2, with mass production starting January 2026 at over $30k per wafer and 100k wafers per month. Capacity is sold out through 2026-2027, with 1.4nm in H2 2028.
What is TSMC's planned capex for 2026-2028?
TSMC plans $52-56 billion capex in 2026, rising to $65-70 billion in 2027-2028. This supports advanced node expansion amid AI demand.
How sold out is Intel's 18A process?
Intel's 18A process is over 60% sold out for 2026, including a major deal with Musk for Terafab. Its foundry business nears a billion-dollar threshold.
When does Samsung plan to start 2nm production?
Samsung begins 2nm trial production in March 2026 at its Texas plant, challenging TSMC's U.S. dominance. This marks a historic first for U.S. 2nm manufacturing.
What are the wafer fab equipment spending forecasts?
Lam Research expects WFE at $135 billion, while ASML backlog stands at €42 billion. AI boom drives systems revenue growth for Lam.
What is the scale of TSMC's Arizona investments?
TSMC's Arizona project includes 12 fabs costing $165 billion, though with 2-3x cost overruns. Analysts see upside from potential fab stake buybacks.
What upcoming TSMC events focus on competition?
TSMC's April 16 investor conference and April 22 symposium will address geopolitical factors and competition. Topics include advanced processes and rivals like Samsung.
How is Elon Musk involved in foundry deals?
Musk awarded Intel a $25 billion Terafab deal, boosting its foundry. Rumors suggest shifts from TSMC to Samsung for large orders.
TSMC 65-75% yields/>$30k N2 mass Jan'26 100k wpm sold out '26-27/1.4nm H2'28; capex $52-56B '26 $65-70B '27-28; Intel 18A >60% sold out '26 Musk Terafab; Samsung 2nm Mar'26; Lam WFE $135B/ASML bklg €42B; AZ 12 fabs $165B; Apr16 conf/Apr22 symposium.