N2/A13/A14/1nm ramps & capex
Key Questions
What are TSMC's key node ramp timelines?
N2 enters high-volume manufacturing in late 2025, A16 mass production is slated for 4Q26, A14 for 2028, and 1nm around 2030-31. N2 yields exceed 70% in trial production and the node is sold out for 2026.
How much capex is TSMC planning for 2026 and beyond?
TSMC raised 2026 capex to $60-64B with an additional $100B US investment bringing the total to $265B across 12 Arizona fabs. Goldman Sachs and Citi project even higher 2027 spending of $75-80B.
What pricing actions is TSMC taking from 2027?
TSMC plans 5-10% wafer price increases starting 2027, with mature nodes seeing up to 10% hikes, which drove a premarket rally of +3.74%.
How does AMD's N2 adoption confirm node viability?
AMD's EPYC Venice on N2 and upcoming Zen 6 on N2P demonstrate commercial readiness, with the 256-core server chip entering volume production.
What progress has TSMC's Fab 20 achieved on 2nm?
Fab 20 has reached 20,000 wafers per month with 4x tape-outs versus 3nm, signaling strong AI/HPC demand from Apple, Google, AMD, and NVIDIA.
What margin risks arise from the N2 ramp?
A 2nm ramp margin test of 3-4 points is a near-term risk, compounded by ASML Low-NA EUV price hikes and higher US fab costs.
When will Intel's 18A compete with TSMC's nodes?
Intel's 18A is not expected to reach profitable yields until late 2026, giving TSMC extended process leadership through the N2 and A16 ramps.
How has TSMC updated its 2026 revenue guidance?
TSMC raised 2026 revenue guidance to over 40% growth and improved Q3 margin outlook to 57%, driven by AI demand.
N2 HVM late 2025; A16 mass production 4Q26; A14 2028 with concrete specs; 1nm ~2030-31. TSMC N2 yield >70% in trial production, N2 sold out for 2026. Record capex raised to $60-64B for 2026, with $100B additional US investment (total $265B, 12 Arizona fabs). Goldman Sachs raised 2027 capex to $78B; Citi sees $75-80B. 2nm queue crowded with 4x tape-outs vs 3nm. A14 progress confirmed on track for 2028; leakwatch claims 90% SRAM yield (unconfirmed). CFO admitted US fabs cost 4-5x more, margin dilution 2-4% over 2024-2029. TSMC plans 5-10% price hikes from 2027. AMD EPYC Venice on N2 launched. AMD Zen 6 on N2P confirmed. TSMC's 2nm Fab 20 at 20k wpm, 4x tape-outs, Apple/Google first. TSMC's deliberate high-NA EUV strategy vs Intel highlights cost discipline. 2nm contributed 3% of Q3 revenue. TSMC's 1.4nm fab ahead of schedule, mass production by mid-2028, reinforcing technology roadmap lead. New: TSMC will acquire WSMC to add 400k eight-inch wafers/year capacity for mature nodes, expanding overall foundry capacity amid tight market.