Packaging/CoWoS capacity tightness, HBM4 shortage and Taiwan concentration
Key Questions
What is the current status of TSMC's CoWoS capacity?
CoWoS capacity is at 130k/125k wafers, up +5%, with plans for 75-80k by end'25. Nvidia has prepaid $9B amid tightness.
What are the HBM shortages and timelines?
HBM shortages have doubled prices; Micron is sold out through '27, SK Hynix HBM4E ends '26, and Samsung targets Feb'26 for HBM4 potentially for Nvidia.
How much is TSMC investing in advanced packaging?
TSMC allocates 20% of 2026 capex to advanced packaging, up +80%, with ASE doubling capacity and US start in Q2'26.
What alternatives are challenging TSMC's CoWoS?
Intel's EMIB/Foveros is gaining traction with Amazon and Google exploring alternatives; Musk's Terafab has traction but faces Intel satellite blocks.
What risks affect sold-out 2026 CoWoS?
Power and helium shortages pose risks to fully booked 2026 CoWoS capacity.
What will be discussed at TSMC's April 22 symposium?
Topics include N2, A16, HBM, CoWoS, and 3DFabric.
How is Samsung reinforcing AI bottlenecks?
Samsung's record Q1 profits from AI memory boom highlight ongoing HBM and packaging constraints.
What is Lam Research's price target for TSMC?
Lam Research sets a PT of $260 for TSMC amid packaging tightness.
CoWoS 130k/125k +5%/75-80k end'25 $9B NVDA prepays; HBM shortages double prices Micron '27 sold out; TSMC adv pkg 20% capex '26 +80%; Broadcom confirms capacity bottleneck; Intel EMIB alts/Musk Terafab; power/helium risks; Apr22 symposium.