Packaging/CoWoS/HBM shortages & silicon photonics ramp
Key Questions
What packaging expansions is TSMC undertaking?
TSMC announced two new advanced packaging plants in Chiayi with $9.35B annual production value and 9,000 jobs. CoWoS yields exceed 98% and lead times remain 52-78 weeks with supply still sold out.
How is TSMC addressing CoWoS shortages and silicon photonics?
TSMC plans 5 new fabs in 2026 and is ramping PIC capacity 30x to 25K wpm by 2028. It is also advancing CoPoS to 2028 with 1.6 Tbps silicon photonics at under 5 pJ/bit.
What does NVIDIA's Amkor agreement mean for TSMC packaging?
NVIDIA signed a $1.5B packaging deal with Amkor starting 2028 as a long-term hedge. It does not threaten TSMC's near-term CoWoS monopoly amid a 30% supply gap and $650B hyperscaler spend.
CoWoS yields >98%, 2nm capacity CAGR 70%, 5 new fabs in 2026, 25 finalized 2nm designs. CoWoS supply gap 30%, $650B hyperscaler spend. NVIDIA moving Feynman orders to Intel for packaging. TSMC PIC capacity 30x to 25K wpm by 2028. CoPoS advancement to 2028. Silicon photonics acceleration. CoWoS lead times 52-78 weeks, still sold out. Nvidia signed $1.5B Amkor packaging hedge. Nvidia GB300 dies in Arizona production but packaging remains Asia-centric. CoWoS still missing from US. TrendForce CPO analysis shows NVIDIA/Broadcom ramping CPO switches, optical engine yield and advanced packaging capacity as key bottlenecks. TSMC's packaging revenue potential $16.6B. TSMC developing EMIB-like packaging to counter Intel's foundry push, stock gained ~8% on the news. TSMC's COUPE silicon photonics platform entering mass production, extending moat into optical interconnects. CoPoS panel packaging pilot announced, mass production 2028-2029, keeping AI packaging tight through 2027. New: TSMC's EMIB-like packaging development with Kinsus confirmed, 14-reticle CoWoS by 2028. Dual stock rally (TSMC +7.6%, Intel +13%) on packaging competition. Google's 3M TPU order and Nvidia evaluation of Intel EMIB add competitive pressure. Foundry Allocation Dashboard confirms N2/N3 fully booked, CoWoS 50+ week lead times, HBM allocation details. Nvidia AI chip demand outpaces supply 12 to 1 (Ives), reinforcing persistent bottleneck.