Global Trade Reallocation and US-China Spillovers

New study quantifies both quantity and quality declines in Chinese agricultural exports due to tariffs. Brookings podcast on Europe's China Shock 2.0 (deindustrialization, German job losses). Tariff macro effects: US GDP -0.6-1.0%, EU -0.2%. Vietnam overtook Mexico as top deficit partner. New data: China export surge 24% YoY, $113B surplus, yuan strength 3.6% confirms second China shock; adds granularity to trade reallocation and currency shifts. New geopolitical trade study: US imports +12% per standard deviation of geopolitical risk, exports -10%, challenging 'trade war reduces all trade' narrative; shows US pivots sourcing.