Dalio Macro Monitor

Persistent inflation, with global core CPI projected at 2.8% yoy by end-2026, is driving expected additional rate hikes from the Fed, ECB, and BoJ...

The US waiver on tariffs for Russian oil buyers hands India near-term macroeconomic breathing room, but the relief is framed as temporary amid ongoing...

Consumer spending financed by borrowing masks underlying weakness as households seek repayment help.

• Money Management International handled over $1...

USD/JPY correlations with US two-year yields and yield spreads turned negative at -0.43 and -0.39 over the past fortnight, pointing to a potential change in how currency markets respond to US inflation and rate signals.

Over 40 developing countries face liquidity crises but lack debt stocks requiring restructuring. Interest payments now exceed 10% of revenues on...

Next week's releases focus on labor-market momentum and growth signals, separating forecasts from prior outcomes.

• ADP Weekly Employment Change (Oct...

PPI hit 6.3% YoY in September, the highest since 2022 and well above the 0.6% MoM expectation, yet the 10-year yield fell 18 bp to 5.10% and the...

China's benchmark 10-year yield sits at 1.7% and keeps falling while US Treasuries exceed 5%, German bonds reach 3.5%, and JGBs top 3%. The gap stems...

Using difference-in-differences local projections on disaggregated tariff and import data, the paper shows US tariffs diverted Chinese exports to the...

Tighter monetary policy proves more powerful during recessions in Brazil and may exacerbate credit contraction in slowdown episodes.

Apollo economist Torsten Sløk hypothesizes that AI buildout returns above the fed funds rate will sustain upward pressure on interest rates, as the capex boom stays insensitive to borrowing costs.

Long-duration Treasuries sold off as stocks rebounded, with 10- to 30-year yields rising more than five basis points before easing. The move reflects...

• N1.03 trillion in subscriptions met only N269.06 billion allotment against N450 billion offered, showing aggressive bid rejection.
• On the 364-day...

Futures markets price just a 15% chance of a Fed hike in October, yet Kevin Warsh's explicit rejection of traditional forward guidance leaves room for...

Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter warned that rising European public debt, especially in France amid political fragmentation and tepid...

CoreWeave’s five-year CDS briefly exceeded 1,140 basis points before settling near 1,038, with its 9.75% 2031 bond yielding 15.78%, amid more than $51...

Strong U.S. consumer spending drove Q2 nominal private demand growth to 9.5% annualized—more than double pre-COVID levels—with consumer contributions...

Ray Dalio highlights that U.S. debt supply is outpacing demand while rising debt-service costs risk crowding out other spending, with $2.1 trillion in...

Do elevated municipal yields signal a genuine entry point, or an investment pitch?

Market evidence shows the 10-year tax-equivalent yield reached...

The new dataset expands IMF WEO coverage to 200 economies and 17 variables across 41 vintages from 2006–2026, delivering 530k forecasts and 182k...