Dalio Macro Monitor

AI hyperscalers are ramping up debt to fund $725B in 2026 capex, with $136B issued YTD and over $200B expected.

• Hyperscaler leverage:...

Inflation Risks and Policy Response

• 🔥 Rate Hike Signals: Fed officials including Vice Chair Bowman signal openness to raising rates if the...

The New York Fed's underlying inflation gauge surged to 4% in April from 3.5% the prior month, with goods and services prices excluding housing also...

Fed rhetoric is turning hawkish as markets now price possible rate increases instead of cuts this year, with officials warning that oil-driven...

Fed Governor Waller stated there's "no way" to return to the pre-crisis small balance sheet, with regulatory tweaks likely trimming just $300-500...

Liquidity Regime Outlook

• 🔥 Structural Cash Glut in Funding Markets: Reports detail persistent cash abundance in U.S. funding markets from SLR...

U.S. funding markets now face structural cash abundance from SLR relaxation, Wells Fargo's post-cap expansion, and Fed bill buys, reversing last...

No significant updates today.

No significant updates today.

Ray Dalio now flags a two-year window for compounding debt, tech, and conflict risks, aligning with academic warnings of fiscal crisis from...

Kevin Warsh's Fed chairmanship points to a regime shift in inflation measurement, less frequent communication, and eventual balance sheet reduction....

Rising 30-year Treasury yields above 5% spark debate between healthy adjustment and hidden systemic risks.

• Recalibration view: Yields reflect...

Model projections flag stagflation risks as tariff shocks hit production networks, prices, output, and consumption simultaneously, complicating...

Global bond markets are ending the era of cost-free fiscal stimulus as supply pressures and inflation risks drive yields higher.

• 30-year U.S....

Real Yields Driving Inflation-Less Tightening

• 🔥 Goldman Sachs Analysis: Global bond markets face an inflation-less tightening as U.S. 10-year...

Goldman Sachs flags an inflation-less tightening regime where real yields—not inflation expectations—drive bond selloffs across the US, Europe, and...

The 5s30s Treasury spread has narrowed to 81 basis points—its tightest level in a year—as traders increase bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Accelerated Treasury issuance of $671 billion through September is draining liquidity via T-bills, with SOFR already rising toward 3.60% as excess...

The IMF's WP/26/94 presents an updated Systemic Banking Crises Database spanning 1970-2025, delivering essential historical context for assessing macro risks as liquidity conditions evolve.

Wall Street sees structurally higher U.S. Treasury yields persisting even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, as the recent surge stems from rising real...