Dalio Macro Monitor

The Fed added $344B in Treasury bills over the past year, but monthly pace slowed sharply and turned negative in August as MBS and notes rolled...

Does the surge in Level C collateral at the Bank of England signal routine liquidity management or early funding stress?

• Data surge: Pledges hit...

Ghana's latest T-bill auction revealed strong domestic liquidity and sovereign funding demand, with GH¢12.35 billion in bids versus a GH¢5.147 billion...

Bank of Jamaica's 14-day repo auction drew $5.5 billion in eligible bids versus the JMD 3 billion allotment, signaling elevated near-term liquidity demand at a 5.98% weighted average rate.

Danish Treasury bill auction results provide a snapshot of short-term sovereign funding:

• Total bids reached 6,300M kr against 5,900M kr sold,...

Balance-sheet contraction has not translated into sustained TLT pressure once QT expectations stabilize.

• WALCL fell 28% to $6.5 trillion by April...

• Local governments face at least $8 trillion in hidden debt after land-finance revenue collapsed post-2020 due to COVID costs and real-estate...

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told G20 finance leaders that growing our way out of record global debt near $353 trillion is the only path forward, even as an Iran-triggered energy shock and China's $1.2 trillion trade surplus add pressure.

• US growth at 2.2% in 2026 masks K-shaped pattern from AI-linked investment and wealth effects
• Chip tariff proposals aim to reshore production but...

The Financial Stability Board's Andrew Bailey identifies AI-enabled cyberattacks as the most immediate threat to the highly interconnected global...

Former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson forecasts two rate hikes through early 2027, citing persistent inflation that has kept core CPI near 2.5% or...

EM local-currency bonds gained 3.3% YTD while developed peers fell 1.9%, driven by $40 trillion US debt and debasement concerns.

• Fund managers cite...

• French 10-year bond yields topped 4.13% last week, the highest since 2008, as investors price in fiscal and political risks.
• Deficit hit 5.1% of...

The official unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in July, leading Fed policymakers to view the labor market as near full employment and shift focus to...

Standard Chartered expects US bond yields to be increasingly capped as inflation concerns recede, with shorter-maturity bonds benefiting most.
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Repeated supply shocks from tariffs and rising policy uncertainty are driving real-time detection of price effects and fresh scrutiny of the look-through approach to inflation.

Ed Conard's roundup opens with endorsements for Unintended Consequences, framing economic dynamism and inequality as signals for entrepreneurship...

Currency prominence is signaled by the denomination of international debt securities. Liquidity crunch crises highlight where the identity of the dominant currency becomes decisive for the global monetary system.

The DWS article opens with a prominent fraud warning and offers only brief commentary on the $40 trillion debt milestone without delivering the required data-driven charts or original fiscal analysis.

Clearer communication of the monetary policy framework and reaction function helps markets understand how policy will respond to evolving data and...