Treasury Yield Regime Shift and Term Premium Rebuild

30Y yield near 5.2% (2007 highs), term premium from -50bp to +68bp. Equity-bond correlation flipped to +0.77, breaking 60/40 hedge. Fed policy uncertainty under Warsh (fewer meetings, dismantling ample reserves) amplifies market impact. Rising yields could choke AI capex. New data: swap futures volume surged to $16B notional ($4.5M DV01) driven by mortgage hedging extension risk, reinforcing 'higher for longer'.