Big Four recession indicators flashing warnings
Key Questions
What are the Big Four recession indicators signaling as of February 2026?
The Big Four indicators show industrial production down 1.5%, retail sales down 1.4%, and income/employment off recent highs with recession overlays. Unemployment is at 4.3-4.5%, alongside a GDP growth of 0.5% in Q4 2025 and surges in oil prices and CPI.
What does the April 2026 Brookings TIGER update describe about the economic outlook?
The update describes a shift from a year of economic healing to one of peril, driven by war-related energy shocks, fiscal squeezes, and central bank constraints. It notes the pre-war US AI and productivity boom flipping to rising yields and debt spikes, with vulnerabilities in Europe, China, and India to oil and inflation.
How did the US economy perform in the fourth quarter of 2025?
The US economy grew at 0.5% in Q4 2025, according to the Commerce Department's estimate. This pace was slightly slower than expected, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Big Four (Feb '26): IP -1.5%, retail -1.4%, income/employment off highs/recession overlays; unemp 4.3-4.5%/GDP 0.5% Q4'25/oil/CPI surge; Brookings Apr2026 TIGER update: year of healing turns to peril via war-driven energy shocks/fiscal squeezes/CB binds; pre-war US AI/productivity boom flipping to yields/debt spike, Euro/China/India vulns to oil/infl.