Dalio Macro Monitor

US Fiscal Trajectory and Debt Contest for Capital

US Fiscal Trajectory and Debt Contest for Capital

US debt at $39.4T, deficit $1.4T, interest $857B. Treasury borrowing estimate raised to $739B. The 'contest for capital' between public and private sectors amplifies term premium and yield volatility. CRFB tariff shortfall adds pressure. No auction size increase expected until May 2027, risking supply shock.

Sources (2)
Updated Aug 5, 2026
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