AI Bubble and Debt Overhang

Ray Dalio warns AI mania nearing 1929/2000 levels, with hyperscaler debt at $785B (2026) and $1T (2027). New low-confidence data suggests $2T incremental AI debt capacity, amplifying the contest for capital. Rising Treasury yields threaten to break the AI boom, creating a feedback loop between fiscal pressure and private capital demand. JPMorgan CDS baskets signal maturing NBFI spillovers.