China property bust, credit slowdown, and fiscal centralization

China’s property downturn continues to weaken land-sale revenue and expose local-government refinancing stress, arrears, and property-linked debt. Research on China’s yield curve indicates that external constraints and U.S. Treasury spillovers contribute to regime shifts, complicating a purely domestic-liquidity explanation; debt swaps and central transfers may reduce near-term pressure but do not resolve restructuring and deflation risks.