U.S. Fiscal Blowout: Deficit, Debt, and Tariff Shortfall

$1.4T deficit, $857B interest, $39.4T debt. CRFB tariff shortfall adds to issuance pressure. Powell warns debt trajectory 'will not end well'. PGIM data shows GDP slowing to 1.5% with core PCE at 3.3%. Treasury's shift to short-term bills (21.7% of debt) increases rollover risk and interest cost sensitivity. New: Treasury raised Q3 borrowing estimate to $739B (+$68B vs May), confirming persistent fiscal pressure. The $87B increase excluding starting cushion signals deficits are not easing. Wednesday's refunding announcement is critical for term premium and supply overhang.