US Fiscal Trajectory and Treasury Yield Regime Shift

30Y yield near 5.2% (2007 highs), term premium surged from -50bp to +68bp. $39.4T debt, $1.4T deficit, $857B interest costs. Treasury deepening bill reliance amplifies rollover risk; auction cutback debate adds pressure. CRFB tariff shortfall adds pressure. Equity-bond correlation flipped to +0.77, breaking 60/40 hedge. Real yields have reversed from -2.50% to +2.10%, with $6.5T cash surge indicating risk-off preference (Voronoi, 2026-08-08). Latest Adalytica data confirms 10-year near 4.6% with positive real yields and elevated term premium, reinforcing the regime shift. New: TBAC warning of $1.45T shortfall from Bessent's bill-heavy financing strategy amplifies rollover risk and fiscal stress.