Labor Market Mixed with Federal Cuts & AI Shifts

June payrolls miss (+57K), unemployment 4.2%, quits rate low. JOLTS shows little change in openings. Cleveland Fed deepens 'low-hire, low-fire' narrative. EPI data shows Black adults' financial well-being declined in 2025. OPM eliminates disparate impact guidelines from federal hiring, signaling deregulation. Junior hiring in AI-exposed roles dropped 13-16% since 2022. New: Student loan defaults rising sharply post-pandemic pause; Moody's warns of consumer credit headwind.