Oil Shock, Inflation, Fed Policy Divide, Bond Market Stress

Iran Strait of Hormuz closure keeps oil above $100; Fed holds rates at 3.50-3.75% with three dissents favoring hike. Bond yields remain elevated (30yr above 5.27%) but Bessent's Hormuz deal talk briefly pushed 10yr down to 4.619%. Warsh's fewer-FOMC-meetings proposal and break from forward guidance add volatility. Trade gap narrowed in June but remains 18% above 12-month average.