BTC $64K rally stalls, ETF inflows break streak; BlackRock drives 79% of $233M inflow; macro week; funding rate divergence; volatility compression; cost basis cluster; Trump Media transfer; Strategy sells 1,638 BTC
Key Questions
What is the current status of Bitcoin's price rally?
Bitcoin's rally stalled near $64K and dropped to around $62K amid a tech selloff and macro headwinds. A death cross is forming, and a new weekly Low 2 failure signal points to potential retest of $60K.
How much have Bitcoin spot ETFs seen in inflows recently?
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $930M in net inflows over six days. However, the Coinbase Premium Gap remains negative for a 900-hour streak, signaling limited conviction.
What is happening with Bitcoin options expiry and open interest?
$1.75B in crypto options expire this week, with a $5B call cluster at $70K/$72K strikes. Traders are dropping hedges, with the put/call ratio falling to 0.52 and IV curve inverted.
What macro events are scheduled for the upcoming week?
The week includes decisions from the Fed, BOE, and BOJ, plus GDP, PCE data, BitMEX settlement, FTX distribution, and earnings from COIN and MSTR. Fed rate hike odds stand at 36.3%.
What does the liquidation data show for Bitcoin?
$112M in liquidations occurred, with 88% hitting longs. Funding rates remain calm despite long-term holder movements of 5K BTC.
Are there any contrarian views on the options wall?
Some analysts note that two prior expirations passed without price movement, weak demand, neutral funding, and ETF outflows suggest the options wall may not act as a catalyst.
What signals point to potential altcoin short opportunities?
Bitcoin's rejection at $68K and macro headwinds like ECB bond runoff have identified altcoin short candidates amid low conviction long/short ratios.
How is implied volatility behaving in energy and equity markets?
Energy IV exploded 30 points while the Russell 2000 doubled Nasdaq performance. A compressed vol event is expected ahead of the Fed and mega-cap earnings.
BTC stuck sideways near $64K after Fed hold. Bitcoin ETFs saw $233M inflows on July 30, with BlackRock IBIT driving 79%. Macro week includes Fed/BOE/BOJ decisions, GDP/PCE, and $10B options expiry. Funding rate divergence persists: Binance funding rates multi-month highs, OI surges to 2-month high — classic squeeze divergence. Bitcoin volatility compression to narrowest range since January (Bollinger bandwidth 5.66) — coiled spring setup. New: Strategy sold 1,638 BTC last week (below cost), adding supply pressure. Trump Media moved 7,281 BTC (63% of stack) to Crypto.com, firm clarifies it's a custody move not a sale but collateralization risk adds supply pressure uncertainty. Key liquidation zones $62K-$65K; cost basis cluster at $62K-$65K with contained leverage and positive funding rates — clean support/resistance for range plays. SNDK options at 96% IV percentile, 55% drop, earnings Aug 5, put/call ratio 1.26, gamma wall at $1,000 — high-volatility short-term setup; collar hedging active, SPCX lockup risk.