Pokrovsk/Donetsk + Kupyansk/Lyman + Kharkiv axis
Key Questions
Has Russia captured Kostiantynivka according to Ukrainian sources?
Ukrainian officials including President Zelenskiy and the General Staff deny any loss of control over Kostiantynivka, with video evidence published from multiple areas of the city. ISW assessments using geolocated evidence also rebut Russian claims of capture.
What is the current status of the Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk sectors?
Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk remain focal points of Russia's Donetsk offensive with small-unit infiltrations reaching outskirts and Kramatorsk described as 'critically difficult' due to increased FAB-1500 strikes. The General Staff reported 55 attacks in the hottest sectors including Sloviansk and Huliaipole.
How have Russian advances in Donetsk changed in recent months?
ISW analysis shows June advances slowed to 3.79 sq km/day in Donetsk compared to 16.65 sq km/day in August 2025, confirming the offensive is stalling. Russian forces have shifted to small-unit infiltration tactics after heavy losses while maintaining a 1 km²/day advance rate overall.
What claims has Russia made about Kupyansk and how reliable are they?
Russian state media claimed forces regained administrative buildings in Kupyansk, though this remains unverified. DeepState maps for July 7 provide the latest control line updates in the area.
Which Ukrainian city is now the main focus of Russia's Donbas offensive?
Kostiantynivka has become the focal point with Russian forces pushing toward the Donbas 'fortress belt' cities including Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kupiansk. Mid-range drone strikes have slowed but not halted these incremental advances.
What Ukrainian counteraction occurred near Pokrovsk?
Ukrainian forces struck the Rubikon drone training center in Pokrovsk, resulting in 10-15 reported casualties among Russian personnel.
How does the overall Russian offensive progress compare to earlier periods?
IC Brief data confirms the spring offensive has collapsed with a daily advance rate of only 1.01 km², while Russian forces continue incremental pressure on multiple axes toward Orekhov, Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kupiansk.
What role are FAB-1500 bombs playing in the current fighting?
Russian FAB-1500 glide bombs have reportedly destroyed Ukrainian reserves near Kostyantynivka, contributing to intensified pressure on the 'fortress belt' sectors alongside infiltration groups.
Russian MoD claims capture of Kostiantynivka (unverified); Putin hails capture. Zelenskiy denies, General Staff confirms no loss of control. ISW July 4 assessment rebuts claim with geolocated evidence. July 5: Ukrainian forces publish video from multiple areas of Kostiantynivka directly rebutting Putin's claim. July 7 General Staff update: Sloviansk, Pokrovsk, and Huliaipole are hottest sectors with 55 attacks since morning; Kostiantynivka remains under Ukrainian control. July 6-7: Kramatorsk now 'critically difficult' per 24th Brigade spokesperson, with massive increase in guided bomb strikes and Russian infiltration groups. July 9: Kostiantynivka is now the focal point of Russia's Donetsk offensive, with small-unit infiltrations reaching the outskirts. Mid-range drone strikes have slowed but not halted Russian advances. Russian forces push toward Donbas 'fortress belt' with incremental advances. Russia shifts to small-unit infiltration after heavy losses; 1 km²/day advance rate. ISW quantitative analysis shows June advance rate in Donetsk at 3.79 sq km/day vs 16.65 in Aug 2025, confirming offensive stalling. Ukrainian forces hit Rubikon drone training center in Pokrovsk, 10-15 casualties. Strategic analysis shows Russian advances toward Orekhov, Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, Kupiansk. July 10-11: Russian state media claims forces regained administrative buildings in Kupyansk (unverified). Russian FAB-1500s reportedly destroyed Ukrainian reserves near Kostyantynivka (unverified). DeepState map for July 7 shows latest control lines.