Russia’s effort to expand weapons production to offset sanctions and battlefield losses

Russia’s sustained and expanding weapons production throughout 2025 continues to serve as a cornerstone of its military strategy, driven by robust hydrocarbon revenues and an increasingly sophisticated import substitution framework. However, this industrial endurance faces intensifying challenges from Ukraine’s ever more advanced and multifaceted precision strike campaign, which now incorporates targeted attacks on Russian long-range drone launchers, further degradation of energy export infrastructure, and innovative tactical measures such as FPV drone assaults and pipeline sabotage. Together, these dynamics shape a high-stakes contest with profound implications for the trajectory and sustainability of the conflict.

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Russia’s Industrial Resilience Amid Mounting Pressures

Russia has maintained steady or growing output across critical military platforms, demonstrating notable adaptability despite sanctions and battlefield attrition:

• Main Battle Tanks:
  Production continues for upgraded T-90M and T-14 Armata models, with factories overcoming supply chain disruptions through enhanced domestic manufacturing and allied sourcing. These armored vehicles remain essential for replenishing combat losses and sustaining offensive operations.

• Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs):
  Serial production of reconnaissance and strike drones persists, preserving Russia’s tactical advantage in battlefield intelligence and precision targeting. The sector, however, is under direct assault by Ukrainian strikes on drone training, storage, and launch facilities, notably around Donetsk Airport and other key sites.

• Attack Helicopters:
  Consistent manufacture of Mi-28NM and Ka-52M models sustains Moscow’s aerial firepower and maneuver capabilities.

• Precision-Guided Missiles:
  Production of long-range systems such as the Kh-101 cruise missile and Iskander ballistic missiles remains uninterrupted, underpinning Russia’s capacity for deep strike operations.

Import substitution programs have accelerated, mitigating the impact of Western sanctions by:

• Expanding domestic production of previously imported components.
• Diversifying supply chains through allied and neutral states.
• Promoting R&D to close technological gaps.

Still, persistent bottlenecks and resource constraints loom, underscoring the fragility beneath industrial resilience.

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Hydrocarbon Revenues: Sustaining the War Economy Under Siege

Hydrocarbon exports remain the financial backbone of Russia’s military-industrial complex, yet face escalating disruption:

• Oil and gas revenues fund weapons production, factory upgrades, and workforce retention.
• Ukrainian maritime operations increasingly target Russia’s covert “shadow fleet” of sanction-evading tankers, exemplified by the December 2025 attack on the Dashan tanker, which inflicted significant damage and underscored vulnerabilities.
• Strikes on Crimean ports, refineries, and logistical hubs have compounded export challenges, eroding revenue streams critical to sustaining the war effort.

Russian officials continue to emphasize hydrocarbon income’s strategic importance, but the growing efficacy of Ukrainian interdiction efforts threatens this lifeline.

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Ukraine’s Escalating Precision Strike Campaign: New Targets and Tactics

Ukraine’s precision strike offensive has intensified in scale, sophistication, and innovation, targeting Russia’s military-industrial base and supporting infrastructure with increasing effectiveness:

• Long-Range Drone Launchers Targeted:
  In a notable recent development, Ukrainian forces conducted a pre-emptive strike on Russian long-range drone launcher systems. This operation aimed to blunt Russia’s UAV strike capabilities and reflects Ukraine’s growing proficiency in disrupting key enablers of Russian drone warfare.

• Sustained Assault on Drone Infrastructure:
  Repeated Ukrainian attacks on Shahed-136 and Gerbera drone warehouses, training centers, and launch pads—in locations including Donetsk Airport—have significantly degraded Russia’s drone deployment capacity.

• Energy Export Infrastructure Under Fire:
  Renewed strikes on Crimean ports, refineries, and shadow tanker vessels continue to disrupt Russia’s hydrocarbon export routes. The damage to the Dashan tanker, coupled with earlier attacks on Temryuk Port and refineries at Novoshakhtinsky and Syzran, further constrains Russia’s ability to finance its military operations.

• Military Logistics and Ammunition Depots:
  The December 17, 2025 SOF raid on a Russian artillery ammunition depot in Luhansk inflicted catastrophic losses, reportedly killing approximately 1,700 Russian troops in a single day and triggering massive secondary explosions. Additional strikes on pontoon bridges and logistical hubs have compounded Russian supply chain vulnerabilities.

• Innovative Tactical Measures:

  • FPV Drone Convoy Assaults: Ukrainian Azov FPV drones launched precision strikes against Russian supply convoys en route to Pokrovsk in late 2025, causing significant attrition and logistical disruption.
  • Pipeline Flooding Sabotage: Ukrainian engineers executed a covert operation that flooded a 13-kilometer subterranean pipeline used by Russian forces, hindering underground troop movements and underscoring Ukraine’s expanding targeting scope.

• Air Defense and Radar Systems:
  The destruction of the Valdai radar system in Crimea late in 2025 has weakened Russian early warning capabilities, increasing susceptibility to Ukrainian missile and air strikes on critical military-industrial infrastructure.

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Strategic Implications: A War of Endurance and Disruption

The clash between Russia’s industrial persistence and Ukraine’s escalating precision strikes yields several key strategic consequences:

• Prolonged High-Intensity Conflict:
  Russia’s ability to sustain and even expand weapons production suggests the conflict will remain intense and protracted, with no near-term resolution.

• Operational and Logistical Strain:
  Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, ammunition depots, drone facilities, radar nodes, and logistical routes impose cumulative pressure, threatening Russia’s frontline sustainment and operational tempo.

• Hydrocarbon Revenue Vulnerabilities:
  Damage to export infrastructure and the shadow tanker fleet risks curtailing critical war funding, forcing Moscow to reassess financial strategies.

• Deteriorating Air Defense Posture:
  Losses of advanced radar systems reduce Russia’s aerial situational awareness and defense depth, increasing the vulnerability of military-industrial assets to further Ukrainian strikes.

• Potential Russian Adjustments:
  Moscow may need to slow or reprioritize production lines, reallocate scarce resources, and enhance protection for critical infrastructure to cope with mounting operational challenges.

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Monitoring Priorities and Outlook

Going forward, the following areas warrant close observation:

• Ukrainian Precision Strike Evolution:
  Tracking the frequency, sophistication, and geographic expansion of strikes—including SOF raids, FPV drone assaults, pipeline sabotage, and maritime drone attacks—will illuminate Ukraine’s strategic trajectory.

• Russian Defense Industry Sustainability:
  Assessing production rates, import substitution successes, technological advances, and workforce conditions will reveal Russia’s industrial capacity to maintain the war effort.

• Hydrocarbon Export Resilience:
  Monitoring the operational status of ports, refineries, and shadow tanker fleets is critical for understanding Russia’s financial endurance.

• Air Defense and Radar Network Recovery:
  Evaluating Russian repair or replacement efforts for damaged radar and air defense systems will indicate shifts in aerial defense capabilities.

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Conclusion

Russia’s determined effort to sustain and expand weapons production in 2025—anchored by hydrocarbon revenues and adaptive import substitution—remains a central pillar of its war strategy. Yet, Ukraine’s increasingly diversified and sophisticated precision strike campaign, now including successful attacks on long-range drone launchers, continued degradation of energy export infrastructure, devastating SOF raids with massive Russian casualties, and innovative FPV drone and pipeline sabotage tactics, presents an escalating challenge to Moscow’s operational and industrial sustainability.

The conflict’s future will be shaped by Russia’s ability to protect and restore critical military-industrial and economic infrastructure amid intensifying Ukrainian disruption efforts. This evolving contest between Russian industrial endurance and Ukrainian strategic innovation will decisively influence the war’s duration, intensity, and eventual outcome.