Russia’s large‑scale Shahed, glide‑bomb, and missile campaigns against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure

Russia’s relentless saturation campaign against Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure has intensified further in late 2025 and early 2026, featuring unprecedented waves of Shahed drone swarms, UMPK glide bombs, and missile barrages. The strategic objective remains clear: to systematically degrade Ukraine’s military logistics, cripple critical energy and transportation nodes, and erode civilian resilience—particularly during the harsh winter months. Despite the sustained pressure, Ukraine’s evolving air defenses, bolstered by international aid and increasingly proactive countermeasures, continue to blunt much of the attack’s impact.

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Escalation of Russian Saturation Attacks: Over 120 Drones in a Single Night

In a stark illustration of the campaign’s scale, on the night of December 30-31, 2025, Russia launched more than 120 Shahed drones against Ukrainian targets, according to reports from Ukrainian defense authorities and media sources such as RBC-Ukraine. This massive overnight assault was part of a sustained pattern of saturation attacks designed to overwhelm Ukraine’s layered air defenses through sheer numbers and multi-vector strikes.

Key points on the recent attacks:

• Scale and Frequency: Weekly drone launches continue to number in the thousands, with individual nights often seeing over 100 drones deployed. These are coordinated with missile barrages, including cruise and ballistic missiles, and precision-guided UMPK glide bombs.

• Target Selection: The attacks focus on critical infrastructure hubs, including the Odesa Black Sea port—a vital grain export gateway—where missile and drone strikes have damaged grain storage facilities and railway links, threatening Ukraine’s export capacity. Kyiv’s electrical grid remains a recurrent target, as demonstrated by prolonged blackouts following attacks such as the December 27, 2025, 11-hour barrage.

• Winter Vulnerabilities: Thermal power plants in Kherson and Kharkiv have been repeatedly targeted, cutting heating supplies amid freezing temperatures, exacerbating humanitarian challenges for civilians in affected regions.

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Ukrainian Adaptive Defense and Offensive Countermeasures

Facing such unprecedented saturation attacks, Ukraine has not only strengthened its multi-layered air defense network but also initiated pre-emptive strikes against Russian drone launch infrastructure to disrupt future waves.

• Air Defense Systems: Ukraine’s kinetic defenses—comprising Western-supplied systems such as NASAMS, IRIS-T, and indigenous missile systems—have maintained interception rates between 50% and 80% against Shahed drones and glide bombs. Fighter aircraft remain active in engaging higher-value cruise and ballistic missiles beyond the range of ground-based systems.

• Electronic Warfare (EW): Sophisticated EW units continue to degrade Russian drone command and control, breaking swarm coordination and reducing strike effectiveness. Enhanced radar arrays and early warning systems have improved detection of low-observable targets, enabling more timely responses.

• Pre-Emptive Strikes on Drone Launchers: In a significant development, Ukrainian forces have successfully targeted and destroyed several long-range drone launching sites deep within Russian-controlled areas, as reported in recent analyses. These strikes aim to reduce the volume of incoming drone waves by disrupting the operational cycle at its source.

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Critical International Support Sustains Ukraine’s Defense

External assistance remains pivotal in Ukraine’s ability to withstand and respond to saturation attacks:

• The United Kingdom has supplied over 1,000 air defense missiles and more than 250,000 rounds of air defense ammunition throughout 2025, enabling Ukraine to sustain high interception rates despite the volume of incoming drones and missiles.

• Additional Western partners continue delivering advanced interceptor systems, precision-guided munitions, and training, adapting to evolving Russian tactics and technologies.

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Humanitarian and Operational Impact

The cumulative effect of these continuous Russian air campaigns has been severe:

• Over 39,000 Ukrainian households remain without power as of mid-2026 (Euromaidan Press), with many facing prolonged outages due to damage to electrical grids.

• Disruptions to heating infrastructure in Kherson and Kharkiv have compounded civilian hardships during winter, increasing vulnerability among the population.

• Damage to logistics hubs and transportation networks, particularly in Odesa and eastern regions (Donetsk and Luhansk), hampers military resupply and economic activity.

Despite these hardships, Ukrainian military operations continue unabated, with frontline units benefiting from the resilience of the civilian population and the protective umbrella of air defenses.

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Summary and Outlook

• Russia’s saturation air campaign leveraging Shahed drone swarms, UMPK glide bombs, cruise and ballistic missiles remains highly active and destructive, targeting key urban centers and critical infrastructure nodes across Ukraine.

• The scale of attacks has increased, exemplified by nights with over 120 drones launched simultaneously, combined with missile barrages designed to saturate air defenses.

• Ukraine’s multi-layered air defense architecture—integrating kinetic interceptors, fighter aircraft, enhanced radar, and electronic warfare—is successfully mitigating much of the threat but is under constant strain.

• Pre-emptive Ukrainian strikes against Russian long-range drone launchers represent a crucial shift toward offensive countermeasures, aiming to degrade the sustainability of Russian saturation tactics.

• Continued international support, particularly from the UK and Western allies, remains essential in replenishing Ukraine’s air defense stocks and maintaining operational effectiveness.

• The ongoing conflict highlights the modern warfare imperative of integrated air defense and rapid technological adaptation in countering drone swarms and missile saturation tactics.

As winter 2026 progresses, the battle for control of the skies over Ukraine will remain a critical factor shaping the broader conflict’s trajectory. While Russia’s saturation campaign seeks to wear down Ukrainian defenses and civilian resolve, Ukraine’s resilience—supported by international aid and innovative countermeasures—demonstrates that even the most intense drone and missile onslaughts can be confronted and contained.