Luxury resilience & market expansion (China, India, trade policy)

LVMH H1 2026: Q2 organic +3%, FLG +1% first rise in 2 years, jewelry +11% (Tiffany 9%, HardWear +75%, Knot +50%), Dior momentum, operating margin 22.5%, FCF €4.1B. However, LVMH shares fell to six-year lows as market remains unconvinced. Kering H1 confirms turnaround: Gucci -2% Q2 (vs -8% Q1, beat expectations of -3.27%), leather goods back to growth, comparable sales +1% H1, +2% Q2, net profit down 60% on exceptional items, margin 12.8%, debt halved to €3.3B, FCF up 68%, store closures improving productivity. Kering shares +11.8% on beat. SMCP Q2 +2% organic, Americas +10.4%, margin 8.9%, leverage 1.1x. Jewelry divergence: LVMH jewelry +11%, Kering jewelry +14% vs fashion -5%. Moncler H1 +9%, Zegna +9.3%, Armani profit doubles but revenue -2.8%. BCG/Altagamma 2-5% growth 2026. Richemont +20%. Burberry +5%, Cartier China growth. AFP wire confirms Q2 acceleration. Arnault denies family rift but governance nuance.