Poly ➡️ Market

June volume hit $50B milestone (Kalshi $33B, 65% share). World Cup primary driver — Polymarket's $3.9B winner market. Kalshi crossed $100B cumulative volume. New verticals: music prediction markets scaling ($400M Kalshi, $823M YTD). LeBron free agency: XPredict 35.6% Warriors vs DraftKings 83% — structural inefficiency. Macquarie flags political risk. Kalshi perps launched with $1B volume first week. ADI Predictstreet 126K trades vs billions highlights liquidity concentration. Meta building Arena app. Robinhood at $350M ARR. SIG co-launches Rothera with Robinhood, captures 7% share; Rothera now $3B+ World Cup volume. Michael Burry buys Flutter/DraftKings shares. GPT-5.6 launch prediction at 98%. Tail event markets on Kalshi: AI regulation at 4 cents. Wimbledon semifinal markets. LeBron free agency: Warriors 47%. Tyreek Hill next team Chiefs 57%. Kalshi vs Polymarket head-to-head: June volumes $31.5B vs $13.3B. Macquarie report confirms $50B monthly volume, Kalshi 65% share. DraftKings launching DKeX. Horizon Trading adds Kalshi support. Gas price prediction markets spike to 75% above $3.50. Nevada sportsbook execs blame PMs for $249M handle drop. GPT-5.6 launch prediction at 98%. Polymarket pushes for US regulatory blessing via $112M QCEX acquisition. Kalshi rate hike odds: 54% for 2026, 62% before July 2027, 76% no cuts. Bellingham yellow card risk repricing World Cup odds. Polymarket applies for FCM license. Midterm election volume hits $197M. RealClearPolitics adds Polymarket data. PYMNTS macro overview. France's World Cup run. Google bans extensions. CFTC approves Optex Markets. Structural critique: fragmented liquidity, noise trader dominance, insecure resolution (WaterX). Lamine Yamal's confidence boosting Spain-France odds. UFC 329 comparison. Pew data shows volume surge from $5B to $24B. MEXC Combo introduces multi-event bundling to address capital drag—a structural innovation. Wildfire betting markets emerge as a new product frontier ($1.2M volume). Kyle Schwarber tops Home Run Derby odds on Polymarket and Kalshi. Highest grossing movie market: Spider-Man at 72% with $1.67M liquidity. Meta building Arena app. NVIDIA at 92.5% to stay top company by July 31. Polymarket launches Combos (parlay-style bets). Norway's World Cup run driving volume. LeBron James next team: Cleveland 48%. Polymarket US rebranding campaign. Mitch McConnell public appearance market on Manifold at 16% with massive volume spike. Berlin election: Linke surges to 42%. Polymarket integrates TWAP for crypto markets. ProphetX asks CFTC for Section 4(c) framework. Rams Super Bowl market spikes to 16% after Myles Garrett trade. AI math conjecture market at 98%. Kalshi vs Roosevelt Institute debate over $583.5M retail losses — methodological dispute highlights structural risk. Midterm election betting volume hits $197M, with Kalshi probability breakdown (Dem sweep 46%). US-Iran strikes slash Strait of Hormuz de-escalation odds to 3% from 6% — $15.9M volume, oil surge. Dodgers contracts hit $68M on Polymarket and Kalshi, signaling sports overtaking politics in volume. Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison piece provides evergreen platform analysis. Gas price bets surge on Kalshi amid U.S.-Iran tensions, with technical analysis patterns. Insider trading concerns article highlights lack of clear policies as prediction markets grow. Democratic MI-07 odds drop 9 points to 73% as primary field narrows; Polymarket discount noted. Prediction markets coming to Canada via Wealthsimple/Kalshi partnership, but 97% of traders lose money per study.