Platform volumes, live-event liquidity & safety
Key Questions
What were the record volumes for March Madness on prediction markets?
Kalshi hit $228M for the champion and $800M total, with Polymarket at $26M for Michigan-UConn final. This marks a Q1 ATH of $75B.
What surge is seen in sports and esports volumes?
MLB, NHL, NBA, and CS2 esports like Legacy-B8 (95¢ Yes) are surging; Celtics-Hornets at 68% ML on Kalshi. Weekly volumes hit $5-6B.
What is Polymarket's Q1 performance?
Polymarket reached $23.9B in March with 191M transactions, up 2838% YoY, across oil ($12B), Iran ($200M+), tech, and rec events.
What are odds for government shutdown duration?
Kalshi/PM show 52 days odds in May dragging after April 7 House vote fizzle.
How accurate are prediction markets vs polls in CA gov race?
PMs give Swalwell 83% vs polls, highlighting markets' edge.
What impacted Fed cut odds recently?
Powell’s hawkish stance tanked Fed cuts probabilities.
What is the user base and ROI for prediction markets?
840k wallets active, with -8% ROI despite bans, amid live-event liquidity.
What macro signals do crypto prediction markets provide?
They gain prominence as risk signals for events like sports, politics, and economics.
Kalshi Madness $228M champ/$800M total Final Mich-UConn? $26M PM; Celtics-Hornets Kalshi 68% ML; MLB/NHL/NBA/CS2 esports surge (Legacy-B8 95¢ Yes); $75B Q1 ATH ($23.9B Mar PM 191M txs +2838% YoY/$5-6B wkly); gov shutdown 52 days odds May drag (Kalshi/PM post Apr7 House fizzle); PM oil $12B/Iran $200M+/tech/rec; CA gov Swalwell 83% PMs vs polls; Powell hawkish tanks Fed cuts; 840k wallets/-8% ROI despite bans.