Elevated Solar Activity Cooling
Key Questions
What solar activity is currently expected?
M-class flares are possible from region 886, while SWS forecasts low overall flare activity at the R0-R1 level for July 26.
Is a geomagnetic storm warning in effect?
Yes, a new geomagnetic storm warning has been issued for a CME from July 21. It carries potential impacts on power grids and communications.
When could the slow CME arrive?
A slow CME may arrive late July 27/28. An earlier CME from July 21 is already triggering the current warning.
Will there be any impacts in Saucier?
No severe impacts are expected for Saucier. However, HF and GNSS signals may be affected.
What do the latest solar forecasts indicate?
Solar activity is low with background X-ray flux at lower C-class levels. An M3.2 flare was recently detected, and forecasts show continued R0-R1 levels.
Region 4513 produced an M6.9 flare on August 25, followed by a slow CME that may have grazed Earth around August 28-29. Coronal-hole wind supported G1-G2 watches and R2 radio disruptions, but no near-term Earth-directed CME, radiation storm, or significant operational concern was expected as of August 30.