Macro Headwinds: Rising Yields and Liquidity Concerns

Michael Howell (CrossBorder Capital) argues 2026 won't be big for BTC due to global liquidity bottoming in 2027, with 30-year yield reaching 6% as a tipping point. This challenges the bullish M2 narrative. Rising US Treasury yields (near 3% real yield) already pose a headwind to ETF demand. Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech highlighted bond yield risks and potential Fed policy shifts. Scott Bessent's Treasury bond buybacks are being cited as a potential Bitcoin bull cycle catalyst (Seeking Alpha analyst upgrade from Strong Sell to Buy). Bond market stress and Treasury buybacks are driving hard asset rally. Upcoming PCE Aug 26 and $183B note auctions are key tests. Risk of 10% stock correction adds caution.