Macro: US-Iran peace deal eases tensions, oil drops to $80; FOMC delivers hawkish dot plot; inflation remains high
Key Questions
What caused oil prices to drop to $80?
The signing of a US-Iran peace deal eased geopolitical tensions and sent oil prices lower.
What were the latest inflation readings mentioned?
PPI came in at 6.5% and CPI at 4.2%, while the hot PCE print of 4.1% YoY kept hawkish Fed expectations alive.
What did the FOMC decide and project for rate cuts?
The FOMC held rates at 3.75% and projected only one cut for 2026 under Chair Warsh.
US-Iran peace deal signed, sending oil to $80. PPI at 6.5%, CPI at 4.2%, keep hawkish Fed bets alive. FOMC with Chair Warsh held rates at 3.75%, projecting one cut in 2026. Hot PCE inflation (4.1% YoY) triggered $58k low. Prediction markets show 69% odds of $50k before $100k and 77% odds of $55k before $80k.
Sources (1)
Updated Jul 2, 2026