Supply in Loss at 40.6% exceeds Supply in Profit; 200-week MA tested; 6m-2y cohort at 53% realized cap; on-chain capitulation deepens; macro-driven crash framing
Key Questions
What does the current supply in loss metric show?
Supply in Loss has reached 40.6% and now exceeds Supply in Profit for the first time this cycle.
Which moving average was tested according to the data?
The 200-week MA at $61,800 was tested amid the price decline.
What portion of realized cap is held by the 6m-2y cohort?
The 6m-2y cohort holds 53% of realized cap, approaching the 68% level seen at the last cycle bottom.
What did BobLoukas do in response to the market conditions?
BobLoukas bought 10 BTC at $65,000 as part of his model portfolio.
What does Galaxy recommend for Bitcoin accumulation?
Galaxy advises strategic accumulation around Q4 if prices move lower.
Supply in Loss at 40.6% and now exceeds Supply in Profit for the first time this cycle. 200-week MA tested at $61.6K. 6m-2y cohort holds 53% of realized cap, approaching 68% level that marked last cycle bottom. BobLoukas bought 10 BTC at $65k. Ki Young Ju notes weak hands washed out. Galaxy advises accumulation around Q4. Historical pattern: 700% gain after reclaiming 50-month EMA. New data: True Market Mean lost at $77.8K, Realized Price $53.9K in sight, STH cost basis dropping to $76.4K, $1.35B daily realized losses mostly from LTHs. The 2026 crash is macro-driven, not solvency-driven — infrastructure held up.