Economic Pulse Inflation & Markets

Allegations target PM Mark Carney’s $2B heat pump rebate program over past Brookfield ties to manufacturers that could gain from the subsidies.

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M2 YoY growth tracks Nasdaq performance closely enough to reinforce the bull-market case alongside positive GDP, earnings, and consumption data, yet the author stresses the relationship remains imperfect, noisy, and far from all-powerful.

Will energy-driven headline CPI jumping to 3.7% YoY and firmer monthly core pressures keep the Fed cautious on October, or can annual core easing to...

• Nano Banc's September 25 closure became the sixth U.S. bank failure in 2026, with FDIC costs reaching $114 million.
• The Irvine lender's...

UK 30-year gilt yields broke above 6.029% on October 1—the highest since January 1998—driven by fiscal doubts ahead of the October 28 Budget, not just...

August retail sales rebounded with a 1.2% monthly gain and 6% yearly increase after July's decline, viewed by some as consumer fatigue.

• September...

Persistently elevated interest rates 150 basis points above baseline could swell U.S. deficits by $6 trillion through 2036, with $4.9 trillion from...

• Key releases this week include September CPI (consensus: +0.6% MoM, 3.6% YoY; core +0.2% MoM, 2.5% YoY) on Wednesday alongside retail sales and...

A stronger US dollar, fueled by surging Fed-rate-hike odds, has become gold’s dominant short-term headwind.

• Rate expectations surge: Hawkish...

Question: What do the September minutes show about the Fed's dual push to tighten policy and manage market stress?

• The FOMC voted unanimously to...

Treasury yields have climbed from roughly 3.4% to 4.9% amid the ongoing bond sell-off.

Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000, remaining near 57-year lows for the fourth straight week. This signals minimal layoffs even as hiring stays...

TD Securities expects September core CPI to moderate to 0.20% m/m on softer supercore and core services, keeping y/y at 2.4%. Yet core services stay...

Tariffs raised prices across 67 consumer-goods categories by 2.9 percentage points as of February, with domestic goods accounting for about a third of...

U.S. trade deficit widened to $105.6B in August 2026, up 13.7% MoM, driven by surging capital goods and industrial imports.

• AI and data centers...

The FOMC schedule offers a clear roadmap for tracking rate decisions and SEP updates through 2027.

• Next meeting: October 27–28 2026, decision at...

Global food prices climbed in September as weather shocks and trade disruptions tightened supplies, creating a clear supply-side inflation channel....

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh views the current $6.7 trillion balance sheet as excessively large and has tasked a working group with examining its impact on...

Renewed buying pressure on 10-year Treasuries is flattening the yield curve and pulling the 10-year yield lower.

Manufacturing PMI expanded to 54.5% in September, with New Orders at 55.3% and Backlogs rising to 56.4%. The Prices Index jumped to 77.9%, its...