Economic Pulse Inflation & Markets

Why doesn't the end of the historic Treasury yield curve inversion calm recession fears?

• It was the longest inversion in history, a mathematical...

Iran war sparks inflation shock via energy prices, progressing through stages:

• Stage I: Immediate cross-asset shifts in equities, bonds
• Stage II:...

Fed intensifies vigilance on private credit amid redemptions and troubled loans, requesting bank data to assess stress spillover.

• Targets $1.8T...

Cumulative inflation has turned $10,000 in a 2021 checking account into the buying power of just $8,400 today—a stealth loss felt at the grocery...

Weakening US growth trend exposed:

• Q4 GDP slowed sharply to 0.5% annualized from 4.4%, revised down on weak investment; shutdown shaved ~1pp.
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Markets face Iran conflict limbo after failed talks, with 55% Polymarket odds of resolution this month; oil stays high if Strait of Hormuz closed.

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Contrasting Fed pressures emerge:

• Hawkish inflation: Divergent CPI structure from geopolitics (e.g., US-Iran) risks systemic pressures, potential...

Bank credit provision to firms and households affects macroeconomic performance, with surveys measuring changes in lending standards.

US personal saving rate fell 0.5 percentage point to 4.0% in February, its second-lowest reading since November 2022.

Dismal sentiment hits 47.6 – lowest in Michigan's 74-year history, below financial crisis, COVID, stagflation.

• Price anxiety surges: >50% cite high...

Hawkish undertone in March FOMC minutes: "inflation could prove to be more persistent than the staff anticipated" amid Middle East tensions.

• Iran...

Fed Rate Hold and Market Odds

• 🔥 Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75%: The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%-3.75% at its March meeting, with futures...

• March rebound shines: Payrolls surged +178k, unemployment dipped to 4.3%, claims low at 219k—no deterioration yet.
• Revisions darken outlook: 14...

• Fed maintains 3.50-3.75% range after March meeting, unchanged for second session.
• Futures show 65% odds for June cut; UBS eyes September/December...

Key market catalysts:

• Geopolitics risk: U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan fail, deep divides persist; monitor Iran tensions.
• Fed deluge: Goolsbee, Barr,...

• Core PCE at 3.1% in Jan 2026 reflects sticky inflation, with tariffs fueling 100% of excess core goods rise and adding 0.8pp to overall core.
• FOMC...

• Continuing claims maintain downtrend, signaling labor market resilience.
• Initial claims improvement stalls, jumping more than expected to 219k (week ending Apr 4).
• Mixed signals for Fed watchers on hiring trends.

Fed's March minutes mark a hawkish pivot—first mention of potential rate hikes if inflation stays elevated.

• Core PCE stalls at 3.0% YoY, Brent crude...

Private credit woes prompt Fed action:

• Fed requests details from major banks on exposures as redemptions surge and troubled loans rise.
• Aims to...

• Dovish BofA sticks to two 25bp cuts in 2026, as Fed eyes past supply inflation, weak wages.
• Hawkish Siegel calls for rate hikes, citing surging...