Economic Pulse Inflation & Markets

June CPI and PPI releases alongside new Fed Chair Warsh's first congressional testimonies create a high-stakes test for July rate-hike odds, currently...

Upcoming Data and Testimony

• ⚡ June CPI and Warsh Testimony: Markets are bracing for the June CPI print and Kevin Warsh's first congressional...

• Market pricing shows 78% hold and 21.6% hike probability at July FOMC, yet ignores deeper hawkish signals.
• June minutes removed easing bias and...

The IMF published its July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update.

Warsh plans to slash forward guidance, favoring rate policy over balance sheet moves to deliver price stability and restore flexibility.

This shift...

• 10-year Treasury closed at 4.56% and 2-year at 4.21% on July 10.
• 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.49%.
• Fed rate cuts began in September...

The Fed's July 10 Monetary Policy Report highlighted sticky inflation at 4.1% PCE, driven by tariffs, energy shocks, and AI demand, while vowing...

Credit and debit card spending jumped 6.3% in June, the fastest pace in four years and broad across all income groups plus both services and...

Fed faces sharp internal split on hiking rates amid conflicting signals.

• Data shows no case for hikes: inflation generalization at 60% in May with...

Core PCE hit 3.4% in May amid multiple upward pressures.

• Trumpflation effect: Tariffs keep inflation elevated despite plunging oil prices
• AI...

Goldman Sachs estimates AI will lift US core PCE inflation by 50 basis points by year-end, about five times the average impact on other developed...

Warsh's potential hawkish shift now faces scrutiny after three dissents against the easing bias in the last FOMC statement, casting doubt on near-term rate cut expectations.

Inflation Forecast Revisions

• 🔥 Fed PCE Outlook Update: Fed's July Monetary Policy Report revises 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.6% from prior...

• Headline dip masks core stickiness: Lower gas prices expected to pull June CPI to -0.2% m/m and 3.7% y/y, yet core CPI rises to 2.8% y/y amid flat...

June's sharp jobs miss undercuts mid-year resilience claims despite other positive signals.

• Article 1 highlights solid 2.7% GDP growth, 2.9% core...

The July 2026 Monetary Policy Report flags tariffs, Iran war fallout and near-term AI demand as inflation pressures, while media highlights the...

Kevin Warsh's push to reduce Fed communication, shrink the balance sheet, and adopt a trimmed inflation average risks clashing with other FOMC members...

The Fed's median PCE inflation forecast for 2026 surged to 3.6% from 2.7% just three months earlier, signaling sticky price pressures that make...

Americans are carrying near-record credit card balances as inflation hits a three-year high of 4.2% and average card rates hover near 22%. Consumers...

Upcoming BEA methodology changes will lower core PCE readings by roughly 0.2 percentage points, putting May's rate near 3.2% instead of 3.4%. Even so,...