Powell/Williams/Jefferson/Goolsbee/Hammack/Dimon hawkish patience/hikes on supply shocks/debt amid FOMC hold & Iran
Key Questions
What did Fed Vice Chair Jefferson say about the current stance of interest rates?
Jefferson stated that interest rates are well positioned amid economic uncertainty. He noted the unemployment rate could rise to 4.5% by November 2025.
How many jobs were added in the March Nonfarm Payrolls report?
The US economy added 178,000 jobs in March, beating expectations. Unemployment dropped while wage growth slowed, signaling a balanced labor market.
What are the latest PCE inflation figures mentioned?
PCE inflation stands at 2.8%, with core PCE at 3%. The economy shows about 2% growth with a balanced labor market.
What is Wells Fargo's forecast for Fed rates through 2026?
Wells Fargo expects the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75% through 2026, with no cuts anticipated. This reflects a 'higher for longer' outlook.
What stance did Fed Chair Powell take on comparisons to the 1970s?
Powell dismissed comparisons to the 1970s inflation era. He emphasized current conditions differ amid supply shocks and debt concerns.
What do the latest FOMC minutes indicate about April policy?
FOMC minutes are described as hawkish, with a 99.5% probability of holding rates in April. Officials show patience on supply shocks like those from Iran.
Who expressed hawkish views on potential rate hikes?
Officials like Hammack, Powell, Williams, Jefferson, Goolsbee, and JPMorgan's Dimon advocated hawkish patience. Hammack did not rule out hikes if inflation persists due to supply shocks.
What is the San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly's view on job growth?
Daly indicated she would be okay with zero job growth. This aligns with tolerance for softening labor market amid balanced conditions.
Jefferson 'well positioned'/unemp to 4.5% Nov'25/Daly ok w/ zero jobs; Williams continuity; Powell dismisses 1970s; Mar NFP 178k beat/unemp drop/wages slow; ~2% growth/labor balanced/PCE 2.8%/core 3%; Dimon shocks; Wells no 2026 cuts; FOMC mins today hawkish/99.5% Apr hold; QT pivot.