Upcoming Data and Market Pricing of Rate Hikes

July CPI came in softer than expected (core 2.6% vs 2.8% expected, monthly -0.4%). Jobless claims fell to 197K (below 200K), signaling labor tightness. Q2 GDP at 1.5% but final sales strong. NFP expected +114K still upcoming. Market pricing two hikes over 6-12 months, but new CPI may reduce September hike odds. Deutsche Bank expects 50bp hikes; JPMorgan revised to December hike. Financial conditions tightening. Societe Generale notes late-2026 hike possibility.