Economic Pulse Inflation & Markets

Can Warsh deliver clarity on inflation and policy direction?

• Hawkish dissent grows: Two officials argue rates remain accommodative as PCE inflation...

US real GDP slowed to a 1.5% annual rate in Q2 2026, yet the 4.1% unemployment rate and strong consumer spending signal resilience.

Persistent...

How might Schmid's warning reshape expectations ahead of Warsh's speech?

• Inflation stickiness: Core PCE at 3.3% and headline at 3.7% remain above...

EUR/USD hovers near 1.17 as traders await core PCE to gauge whether the Fed will ease further or stay cautious. A hot print would likely lift the dollar and cap euro gains, while a soft result could open the path toward 1.18.

July PCE held at 3.7% annually with core at 3.3%, hotter than expected on headline and leaving rates far from the 2% target.

• Hawkish pressure...

Four regional Fed banks recommended higher discount rates ahead of the July decision, revealing internal splits over inflation risks versus growth...

Two key indicators point to spreading economic softness:

• Consumer confidence fell to 89.4 in August from 90.2 in July.
• Fifth District...

Hawkish dissent from three FOMC voters plus four districts backing a discount rate hike signals internal pushback, even as softer data tempers broader...

Latest indicators show inflation cooling only gradually.

• CPI rose 0.1% in July, up 3.4% over the past year—one of the smallest monthly gains in two...

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh slashed the post-meeting statement from 341 to 130 words, stripping out all rate-cut guidance. This signals a deliberate...

• July PCE expected to show headline inflation easing to 3.6% YoY with core steady at 3.3%, the Fed's preferred measure ahead of Jackson Hole and...

Different inflation gauges send distinct signals that directly shape Fed decisions and market reactions.

• PCE is the Fed's target because it...

• Hormuz progress and mine removal ease oil prices over 3%, cutting yields as inflation worries fade.
• Oil above $100 from Iran tensions revives...

• Fed's hawkish tone: Hints at rate hikes if inflation shows no sustained decline
• Strict 2% target: Chair Warsh rejects soft targets, affirming...

Regional Fed directors exposed sharp internal splits on inflation risks.

• Cleveland, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas boards voted to hike the...

Rising borrowing costs for heavily indebted governments and strains in sovereign bond markets are forcing investors to confront who pays the government's bill.

US consumer confidence fell to a seven-month low in August amid worsening views on jobs and business conditions. This early warning on household...

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index came in at 4 against 7 expected, a modest miss that stays in expansion territory and aligns with typical regional...

• Economists warn the “Bessent twist” distorts yield-curve signals the new Fed needs.
• Druckenmiller, Bessent’s mentor, calls the $4B buybacks price...

• Hawkish warning: Collins says rates must rise soon unless data shows ongoing inflation decline, citing pervasive concerns
• Cooling evidence: Core...