Economic Pulse Inflation & Markets

Kevin Warsh's push to weaken large bank capital rules clashes with his stated aims of price stability and a smaller balance sheet.

• His post-2008...

Healing labor market data is shifting Fed focus from jobs toward sticky inflation.

• Payrolls averaged 137k gains over four months despite June...

• Headline CPI expected to fall to 3.8-3.9% YoY from 4.2%, driven by sharp energy and gasoline declines.
• Core CPI seen holding near 2.8-2.9% YoY...

Fed Governor Christopher Waller warns against "fighting the last war" by hiking rates too soon while stressing he won't repeat 2021's delayed response...

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is dialing back communications on rate policy while launching task forces co-led by Marc Andreessen and Raj Chetty to review...

Market odds for a July 29 hike have jumped to 46.5% on CME FedWatch and 36% on Kalshi after oil surged past $75 on the renewed U.S.-Iran blockade.
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• Unemployment fell to 4.2% but U-6 reached 7.9% as labor participation dropped and involuntary part-time work hit a 6-month high.
• Small business...

Barclays warns AI investment has replaced oil as the top inflation driver, adding 20-25 basis points to PCE through data centers, chips, and power...

New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is steering toward rate hikes amid sticky inflation and strong labor data, reversing earlier cut expectations.

• Policy...

Geopolitical flare-ups and inflation data are pulling markets in different directions.

• Treasury yields stayed flat amid rising U.S.-Iran tensions...

Yardeni and FxPro both flag June CPI and Kevin Warsh's testimony as central this week, yet diverge sharply in scope.

• Yardeni stresses bank...

A sharp chip sector selloff triggered by SK Hynix's record -15% plunge is pushing futures lower, with Nasdaq-100 E-mini down -0.94% as memory stocks...

AI buildout functions as an infrastructure cycle that raises electricity, semiconductor, and grid costs before delivering productivity gains, keeping inflation risks elevated and complicating the Fed's policy path.

Warsh's First FOMC Meeting

• 🔥 No Cut, Hawkish Stance: Fed held rates with no easing bias, issued a shorter statement, and released a hawkish dot...

The Fed's stance hardened rapidly under Chair Warsh.

• June minutes outlined clear split: sticky inflation from tariffs, energy, or AI demand would...

June CPI expectations center on core readings to clarify Fed policy path, with headline cooling anticipated but persistence key.

• Bond markets:...

Economists now see lower recession risk at 25% but higher inflation at 3.4% for 2026, leaving little room for rate cuts this year.

• May CPI hit...

June CPI lands July 14 amid conflicting signals on inflation and rates.

• Goldman warns hotter data raises odds of Fed hikes, pressuring equities via...

• Hawkish shift: A Fed governor is pushing for a July 28-29 rate hike as June minutes revealed deep divisions over persistent inflation.
• Inflation...

The endgame for central banks remains far from done, with direct implications for ongoing inflation pressures and shifting rate expectations.