Economic Pulse Inflation & Markets

• Post-QT shift: Fed ended $2T balance sheet runoff Dec 2025, pivoted to T-bill RMPs for ample reserves.
• Tightening signals: EFFR-IORB spread...

• Headline CPI surges 0.9% MoM to two-year high, 3.3% YoY, driven by energy prices.
• Core inflation stable; limited passthrough expected from oil,...

Sharp labor deceleration unfolds:

• Pre-report buzz: Forecasts eyed 30K-60K jobs, unemployment steady at 4.4%.
• Actual data: Payrolls added meager...

• Consumer resilience: Light-vehicle sales hit 16.3M annualized; upper-end services robust, with spending projected at +0.8% this year, +1.7% 2027.
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• Oil prices leap above $100 (Brent ~$102, WTI $104, up 7-8%) on US naval blockade of Strait of Hormuz.
• Dollar rallies on safe-haven demand (DXY...

• Historic un-inversion: 10-year yields hit 4.30%+ (up to 4.39%), ending the 27-month inversion amid bear steepener—rising long-term rates.
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Market consensus locks in steady rates for April FOMC:

• 98.4% probability of no change; just 1.6% for 25bp hike
• June outlook tougher: 0% for cumulative 25bp cut, 98.2% hold steady
  Next meeting in ~16 days—no-cut bets dominate.

Tuesday's PPI report arrives days before the May Fed meeting, spotlighting February's 0.7% monthly and 3.4% annual rise – hottest YoY since February 2025.

Energy as GDP lifeblood: Oil surge past $120/barrel after Hormuz closure drains billions in consumer spending.

• Peace scenario: Swift Iran war end...

Geopolitical turmoil dominates Q1: Trump-era events like Iran conflict closing Strait of Hormuz (20% global oil) wiped $14T from equities.

• US...

Key Fed shift: Stopped QT end-2025, now buying $40B T-bills monthly to ease funding pressures.

• Powell front-loaded buys for April tax season...

Inflation Data Releases

• 🔥 Core PCE at 3.0% YoY: Core PCE Price Index rose 3.0% year-over-year in February, down slightly from 3.1% in January...

• Oil soars to $112/bbl as Iran closes Hormuz, matching pattern in 10/12 postwar recessions.
• Sticky inflation builds: Core PCE at 3.0% YoY, Feb PPI...

• DOE action: Lent 8.48 million barrels of crude from Strategic Petroleum Reserve
• Recipients: Four oil companies
• Key detail: Marks the second such move

• Failed US-Iran talks ignite tensions: US Navy blockade threat on Strait of Hormuz, Iran warns of harsh response, oil surges above $100/barrel.
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Housing market gets brief relief, but hottest CPI in years threatens rebound:

• 30-year fixed rate drops to 6.37%, snapping five-week climb
• CPI...

Why doesn't the end of the historic Treasury yield curve inversion calm recession fears?

• It was the longest inversion in history, a mathematical...

Iran war sparks inflation shock via energy prices, progressing through stages:

• Stage I: Immediate cross-asset shifts in equities, bonds
• Stage II:...

Fed intensifies vigilance on private credit amid redemptions and troubled loans, requesting bank data to assess stress spillover.

• Targets $1.8T...

Cumulative inflation has turned $10,000 in a 2021 checking account into the buying power of just $8,400 today—a stealth loss felt at the grocery...