Economic Pulse Inflation & Markets

• 30-year Treasury yields just topped 5%, sparking heavy TLT searches as traders eye a potential reversal.
• Analysts argue markets wrongly price Fed...

Powell remarks and fresh manufacturing readings headline Monday's calendar, delivering direct signals on policy and factory health.

• 7:30 PM ET...

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Cost of Housing Index reveals ongoing pressure on buyers, with median-income families needing 32% of income for a new home...

Two Fed presidents are pushing back against any assumption that rate cuts are the default path forward.

• Mary Daly flagged rising inflation risks...

Bond yields are climbing worldwide as demographics, high public debt, and AI-driven capital demand create persistent inflationary pressure.

• Gita...

GDP revised down to 1.6% for Q1 2026, driven by weaker investment and consumer spending, while core measures held near 2.4%.

• Fed outlook split: TD...

• European households revised inflation expectations upward by 2.5 percentage points after the Iran conflict, while growth expectations fell 1.2...

• Consumer confidence eased to 93.1 in May from 93.8 in April, with inflation worries tied to the Iran conflict driving pessimism.
• Two-thirds of...

April PCE Inflation Data

• 🔥 Headline PCE at 3.8% YoY: The Commerce Department reported April headline PCE rose 3.8% year-over-year, the highest...

The Core PCE surge to 3.2% YoY has crushed 2026 rate-cut expectations, as Hormuz energy spikes and $40T debt leave the Fed paralyzed in a classic stagflation trap with no viable policy moves.

US Treasury yields have surged past key thresholds, with the 10-year exceeding 4.5% and the 30-year above 5%.

This spike is already raising costs...

No significant updates today.

No significant updates today.

Pipeline inflation signals are broadening beyond energy, backing calls to drop the Fed's easing bias.

• Waller shift: Governor now supports removing...

Kevin Warsh's leadership approach echoes Alan Greenspan while advancing rules-based discipline and a smaller Fed footprint.

• Less forward guidance:...

Hot April CPI at 3.8% and core at 2.8% have shifted market pricing toward a 30% chance of a December hike, with energy driving 40% of the rise and...

Treasury yields face simultaneous upward pressure from two fronts: Scott Bessent's inability to deliver lower borrowing costs and surging inflation...

Multiple signals point to a pivotal PCE release this week.

• Long-term inflation expectations jumped to 3.9% from 3.5%, raising Fed concerns about...

Kevin Warsh's proposals to curb FOMC transparency and revamp inflation tracking could force markets to price in greater uncertainty.

• Communication...

Fed Leadership Transition

• Warsh Regime Change Constraints: Kevin Warsh's Fed 'regime change' may require patience and consensus among officials,...