Growth Signals Split Between Resilient Spending and Household Strain
Key Questions
How are Middle East strikes affecting oil and gasoline prices?
Renewed hostilities after the Iran ceasefire collapse have pushed oil and gasoline prices higher, creating upside risks to inflation.
What impact could higher oil prices have on Fed policy and housing?
Oil remains a key wildcard that could complicate the Fed's path; Fannie Mae's July forecast links elevated mortgage rates above 6% through 2027 to the Iran conflict and oil volatility.
How are Treasury yields responding amid war risks and disinflation data?
Yields fell on cooler inflation prints but were limited by Middle East tensions, creating crosscurrents for the inflation and policy outlook.
September retail sales rose 0.8%, but gasoline stations drove 71.4% of the dollar increase and the control group rose just 0.1%. NRF forecasts 4.2% holiday-sales growth to about $1.01 trillion; income-based trading-down patterns and housing affordability underscore uneven household purchasing power.