Sticky inflation 2.4-4.2%+ with ME oil upside, ISM prices up/services jump/stagflation pivot
Key Questions
What are the recent sticky inflation figures from SF Fed PCE?
SF Fed PCE is at 2.8% and sticky, with core PCE at 3%. Short-term NY SCE expectations rose to 3.4%.
What are the expectations for March CPI data?
March CPI is expected at 3.3% YoY, 0.9-1% MoM, with core up 0.3%. Cleveland Fed forecasts range from 3.25-3.71%, potentially one of the worst on record.
What did JPMorgan's Dimon say about inflation?
Dimon highlighted shocks from sticky inflation. This comes amid Middle East oil upside risks.
What do recent ISM reports show on prices and services?
ISM prices index hit 70.7, with services at 54, indicating rising inflationary pressures. Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 52.7.
How might oil prices from Middle East tensions affect inflation?
Surging oil prices due to Iran and Middle East risks could boost inflation significantly. PCE and FOMC minutes will test oil passthrough effects.
Are stagflation fears returning based on recent data?
Data shows sticky inflation 2.4-4.2%+ with ISM jumps, prompting stagflation pivot concerns. Fed Chair Powell has addressed these risks.
What upcoming data will test inflation trends?
PCE data on Thursday and FOMC minutes will highlight oil passthrough. March CPI on Friday is key for Fed's next moves.
Why are short-term inflation expectations rising?
NY SCE short-term expectations increased to 3.4%, driven by oil surges and persistent pressures. Consumer views align with sticky inflation forecasts.
SF Fed PCE 2.8% sticky/core 3%; NY SCE short-term 3.4% up; Mar CPI Fri exp 3.3% YoY/0.9-1% MoM/+0.3% core (Cleveland 3.25-3.71%/worst record); Dimon sticky infl shocks; ISM prices 70.7/services 54; PCE Thu/FOMC mins test oil passthrough.