Bond rout/yields 4.50% peak→4.33%/MOVE 115 on ME oil stagflation re-risk, priv credit warnings; Japan JGB high
Key Questions
What was the peak for 10-year Treasury yields?
10-year yields peaked at 4.50% before retreating to 4.25-4.34% on Powell rally and geopolitics. Curve steepening noted at 0.52%.
How have mortgage rates changed recently?
Mortgage rates hit 6.5% from 5.99%, with national average at 6.43%. Applications dropped 10.5-40%, though Houston remains resilient.
What is the status of Japan's JGB yields?
Japan's JGB yields at 2.41%, a 27-year high on inflation concerns. USDJPY at 160 prompts interventions.
What is the current QT level and outlook?
QT at $2.43T, with 2026 pivot signals. US debt at $39T adds pressure amid private credit stress.
What does the yield curve inversion indicate?
Yield curve inversion at 0.52%, with 30yr at 4.88% and 2yr at 3.85%. It has predicted every US recession since 1955.
How is the housing market affected?
Spring housing market upended by Iran war, with softening national applications. Refinance demand dropped 17% as rates rise to 6.57%.
What risks are highlighted in private credit?
Dimon and Buffett warn of private credit risks like defaults in $1.8T market. Banks face priv credit stress under Basel III.
Why are Treasury yields re-rating?
Geopolitical risk from ME oil stagflation embeds in 10-year yields, signaling permanent risk-free rate re-rating above 4.25% average. MOVE index at 115 reflects liquidity stress.
10yr 4.33% post-peak (geopol rfr >4.25%/curve steepening 0.52%/30yr 4.88%/2yr 3.85%); Dimon/Buffett priv credit $1.8T risks/defaults/redemptions Blackstone/KKR/Apollo; mtg 6.5%; Japan JGB 2.41%/USDJPY 160; QT $2.43T/banks stress/debt $39T.