Geopolitics, AI, trade tensions reshape capital allocation

Anthropic/Anduril raises, Nscale $2B data center. Google-Blackstone AI cloud JV; Thiel-led floating data centers; Mistral-Emmi EU stack. Pension funds face AI concentration risk in VC as valuations soar. Banks financing AI infrastructure as industrial-grade assets. China AI funding triples. New geopolitics risk models aid board oversight of capital decisions. Nvidia earnings highlight capex velocity. $3T data center capex shift over five years—operational complexity (power, reporting) challenges traditional CRE frameworks; boards must ensure data infrastructure can handle this new asset class. Global capital repricing: structural shift from cheap liquidity to disciplined allocation; higher discount rates demand stronger cash flow visibility and governance. India emerging as geopolitical safe haven for capital flows. Institutional capital reorients around asset-level value creation, driven by higher rates and selective capital formation—boards must adapt oversight of portfolio companies. A credit investor's perspective on AI's macro implications (capital costs, credit spreads, fiscal sustainability) informs board risk oversight.