US Market Pulse

• Softer-than-expected PCE at 3.4% cut October rate-hike odds to 37%, lifting Nasdaq 0.24% while S&P 500 slipped 0.25%.
• Tech and megacaps led with...

S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all opened higher Wednesday as softer-than-expected inflation reduced the odds of a near-term Fed rate hike. The move offers temporary relief from higher-for-longer risks but provides no evidence yet of a durable advance.

Markets price a 47.1% chance of an October hike, down from 70.9% a day earlier, while J.P. Morgan forecasts one final move in December.

• Market...

US stocks closed slightly lower on September 30, with the Nasdaq Composite declining just 0.09% to 26,797.54, the S&P 500 falling 0.17% to 7,671.01,...

September's historically weak record shows only one in three months closing red since 2000, with Q4 recoveries failing precisely when macro ruptures...

Rising Treasury yields and geopolitical turmoil are pushing investors to reassess S&P 500 multiples amid persistent market pressure.

• Bond yields...

The S&P 500 dodged the typical midterm slump and enters the historically favorable four-year cycle sweet spot through Q2 next year, with average prior...

The Fed's Financial Vulnerability Index reached the 65th percentile in Q2 2026, flagging notable structural weaknesses across valuations, leverage,...

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% for the first time in over three years, citing inflation at 3.4%...

S&P 500 holds near 7,820 all-time high despite rising bond yields and conflicts, up 22.3% from yearly low.

• Micron: Q4 earnings momentum strong with...

Interest rates tell us far more about economic reality than stock prices, which are distorted by fads and have falsely predicted nine of the last five...

SoftBank paid 9.75% to fund its OpenAI stake, highlighting how elevated capital costs and rising bond yields may strain the AI spending cycle that has...

• Core vehicle: VUAG uses physical replication to track the S&P 500 Index of large US companies.
• Concentration evident: NVIDIA (8.1%), Apple (7.0%),...

• Vanguard economist Joe Davis sees market damage only if short-term rates exceed 5%, with base case at 4-4.25%
• Policymakers' price-stability pledge...

Rising Treasury yields are approaching critical thresholds that could trigger unpleasant moves on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones potentially trading...

Mega-cap tech is shielding the S&P 500 from spiking Treasury yields, with the index up 0.7% this month as the tech sector climbs 4.8%. The rally in...

The S&P 500 showed surprising resilience this week, climbing near its all-time high above 7800 while avoiding the anticipated 5% September correction....

• WTI crude dropped 3.6% to $92.66 on potential US-Iran deal news, with XOP falling 4.8%.
• Low diesel and jet fuel inventories persist below seasonal...

Cash-flow coverage sets the S&P 500's most reliable dividend payers apart, funding payouts many times over even in higher-yield, uncertain markets.

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Wall Street paused after sharp intraday reversals, leaving the S&P 500 virtually unchanged, the Dow down 0.3%, and Nasdaq flat. Rising oil volatility...