US Market Pulse

• Retail sales plunged in July with the steepest monthly drop in over a year, setting a cautious tone ahead of earnings from Walmart, Target, and Home...

The Fed Stock Valuation Model is flashing a bullish signal for the S&P 500 after years of irrelevance.

• Current 10-year yield at 4.68% implies...

QQQ hit its $735.77 target after bouncing from key downside levels, while MU reached $976 and SNDK reclaimed $1463 amid renewed AI momentum....

US stocks opened lower Tuesday as fading hopes for a US-Iran peace deal kept oil prices elevated and bond yields at multi-year peaks. The Dow fell 0.20% to 53,354.43, the S&P 500 dropped 0.58% to 7,700.04, and the Nasdaq slid 1.12% to 26,346.88.

The S&P 500 retreated 0.52% to 7,745 from last week's record near 7,800, with the Dow dropping 273 points amid mixed Nasdaq action.

• Fed split and...

Passive investing and automatic 401(k) flows create a reflexive loop that disproportionately lifts large-cap stocks through market-cap weighting.
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Rising Treasury yields are pressuring stocks, with the 10-year near 19-month highs and 30-year at 5.31%—potentially heading to 5.5%-5.8% amid...

U.S. stocks closed lower Monday with all major indexes declining on rising oil prices and inflation worries, while investors await Fed minutes.

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• Geopolitical pressure: U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz weighed on sentiment, sending the Dow and S&P 500 lower at the open
• AI-driven...

At record levels, long-term investors face a clear split between supporting and cautionary signals.

• Bull case: July inflation cooled to 3.4% with...

Major indices showed little net change last week, with the S&P 500 rising 0.36%, Nasdaq up 0.14%, and Dow falling 0.56%.

Beneath the surface, a...

S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as the index extended three straight weeks of gains, with 69% of companies beating estimates after 90% reported.

• Home...

• S&P 500 notched fresh all-time highs with a three-week win streak despite Middle East tensions and AI trade concerns.
• Implied volatility hit...

Disinflation is confirmed, with July CPI easing to 3.4% and core to 2.5%, alongside softer PPI readings. Morgan Stanley sees this supporting a Fed...

FEMO drives records: S&P 500 year-end target lifted to 8,400 on stronger-than-expected earnings momentum, with 10,000 eyed by decade-end.

• Palantir...

Core CPI cooled to 2.5% y/y last week while PPI rose 4.4%, shifting market odds of a September rate hike down to about one-third.

• FOMC minutes...

S&P 500 and Dow sit at record highs after 23% and 20% gains from yearly lows.

Key events this week:

• Retail earnings from Home Depot, TJX, Lowe’s,...

Reddit's S&P 500 inclusion on August 18 will force index funds to buy 16.7 million RDDT shares—nearly 2.8 times average daily volume—creating...

A clear rotation is underway as market gains spread beyond mega-cap tech. Two examples stand out for long-term investors.

• Costco has beaten the S&P...

• Softer July inflation cut rate-hike odds and lifted the Nasdaq 100
• Strong AI results from NVDA, SMCI and others confirmed demand
• Break above...