Federal Election Insight

Poll and prediction-market reliability under scrutiny

Poll and prediction-market reliability under scrutiny

Post-election assessments disagree: one reports an approximately four-point House popular-vote polling miss, while another estimates a Democratic margin of D+12 to D+14 and says its polling was close. The contrast reinforces the need to examine methods, certified counts, exit-poll limitations, and market odds before drawing firm conclusions.

Sources (2)
Updated Nov 5, 2026
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