Fed Inflation Warnings & Market Reversal; Oil Above $100; Rate Hike Odds Jump; Real Yields Surge

First Fed decision under Warsh held rates but press conference sparked bond selloff. Strong jobs report killed rate cut hopes. Benign CPI/PPI pushed back rate hike expectations. Geopolitical risks (Iran strikes, oil above $100). Rate hike odds now 57% for September. 2-year yield near breakout, CDS spreads widen. Real yields surging to near cycle highs, dollar breaking out—market tightening financial conditions. Market selloff on AI capex concerns. Oil fell below $100 on July 24, providing relief and stabilizing equities; peace talks hopes emerge. HF Sinclair sues EPA over biofuel exemption delays, adding regulatory risk for refiners with a September 1 deadline. Energy earnings roundup: Ovintiv, Matador, Liberty, SLB reported production beats and strong FCF; Matador's Delaware Basin acquisitions signal sector confidence. A broad macro roundup confirms oil above $100, tariffs, mortgage rates, and market decline. S&P 500 nearly unchanged as energy drop balanced chip decline; 85% earnings beat rate is a key counterpoint to AI capex concerns. Upcoming Microsoft, Meta, Apple earnings critical for AI ROI proof.