Global Macro Digest

• Global tightening: Fed raised rates 25bps to 4.00% with another hike likely; gold initially fell 1.3% but recovered as oil dropped from $107 to...

Long-dated sovereign yields rose sharply across the US, UK, Europe and Japan, with the US 10-year Treasury briefly reaching around 4.82%. This...

• BOJ raised rates to 1.25% but two members dissented, sparking doubts on further hikes and yen weakness
• USD/JPY jumped to 156.725, on track for its...

Conventional wisdom claims higher Fed rates automatically undermine gold, yet history shows the metal often thrives in hike cycles. After the first...

• Climate-driven costs already hit U.S. households $400–900 annually through higher insurance, food, and power bills.
• Extreme weather is turning...

Is the Fed's renewed tightening a durable regime or a brief pause before cuts resume?

• Near-term signal: Quarter-point hike to 3.75%-4.00% plus more...

The offshore yuan strengthened to 6.6957 per dollar, its strongest level since July 2022, as the PBOC signals support ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting.

The Bank of England kept its main interest rate at 3.75% despite higher inflation, underscoring its resistance to further tightening even as price pressures persist above target.

Austria's CPI rose to 3.2% YoY in August from 2.8%, driven by a 26.3% fuel-cost surge that lifted transport inflation to 7.8% and housing/utilities to...

The 25bp rate hike to 3.75-4.00% was unanimous and fully anticipated, yet the statement and projections delivered the key signal.

• Statement shift:...

Italy's inflation pace jumped unexpectedly despite an in-line consensus call, leaving open whether this reflects temporary energy effects or more persistent euro-area price pressures.

Refined-product shortages are driving gasoline and diesel prices higher even as crude oil eases from April peaks, with widening crack spreads...

• Headline CPI rose to 3.1% in August from 2.9%, while core CPI held steady at 2.6%.
• Seasonally adjusted inflation surged to 4.2% from 3.3%,...

A prolonged Iran conflict could trigger 1970s-style stagflation through energy shocks, fiscal costs, and bond pressure.

• War has already cost $38B,...

August Polish CPI hit 3.4% YoY as fuel prices jumped 5.2% MoM and added 0.5pp to the rate, driving fuel inflation to 24.2% YoY amid oil above $100 and...

Gold's 2% selloff stems from hotter August inflation data lifting Fed rate-hike odds and the dollar, yet this masks its strategic role as inflation,...

BRICS New Delhi Summit advanced concrete plans for local-currency trade settlement via BRICS Pay, linking systems like UPI, CIPS and SPFS while...

• Volatility premium rising fast: VIX 1-Day expected near 20 by Wednesday decision versus 13 Friday close; MOVE Index to climb from 82, transmitting...

Gold traded near session highs after U.S. consumer sentiment plunged to 47.8 in September, well below the 51 consensus, with inflation expectations rising amid fuel prices and trade tensions.

• Export boom: China posted a $119.1 billion August trade surplus on 25% y/y export growth, with the year-to-date total reaching $805 billion and...