Global Macro Digest

Prediction markets show 99.2% probability of no Fed rate change in June, backed by $11.1 million wagered on the direct outcome and over $66 million...

Inflation Trends

• 🔥 US Inflation Rise: Inflation hit 3.8% in April, the highest in three years, and is increasing regardless of regional or...

Strong US data and official warnings are driving a clear pivot in Fed expectations from cuts toward potential hikes.

• Robust indicators fuel the...

Inflation at 3.8% in April is a broad national phenomenon driven by gas prices and Middle East conflict, not a blue-state problem as claimed. Red...

Gold's 1.6% weekly drop highlights how inflation fears can override traditional safe-haven flows.

• Middle East tensions: Israel-Hezbollah fighting...

US Payrolls Overturn Rate Cut Pricing

• 🔥 May NFP Beats Sharply: Employers added 172,000 jobs in May versus 85-88k expected, with March-April...

May nonfarm payrolls surged to 172,000 jobs—nearly double consensus estimates—with upward revisions of 93,000 for prior months. Unemployment held at...

Markets face a data-heavy week with inflation and policy signals set to shape expectations.

• OPEC+ meeting (Sun): Likely small 188k bpd hike for...

Is the Fed shifting its focus from a rigid 2% inflation target toward growth and real incomes?

• US outlook: Higher inflation tolerance could emerge...

The May ISM services PMI beat at 54.5 masked stagflationary internals that are shifting Fed policy expectations.

• Prices Index hit 71.3, its highest...

• May nonfarm payrolls surged to 172k versus 85k expected, with 93k upward revisions to prior months, erasing rate-cut expectations.
• Spot gold fell...

Bloomberg coverage stresses Hammack's caution, noting it's reasonable to hold rates steady now amid uncertainty while warning action may be needed...

U.S. Monetary Policy and Inflation

• 🔥 Fed Officials Signal Patience or Hikes: Fed officials including Schmid and Williams cite persistent...

• Energy shock deepens: Iran conflict and Hormuz disruptions drove PCE energy prices up 18.3% y/y in April, spilling into shipping, groceries and...

BOJ Governor Ueda's hawkish remarks keep rate-hike expectations intact for the June 15-16 meeting, with the 2-year JGB yield rising 1bp to 1.41% for a...

Fed hawks signal rising odds of rate increases this year while one peer frames the choice as patience versus hikes.

• Lorie Logan warned higher rates...

• Gold hit 27% of global official reserves by end-2025, ahead of U.S. Treasuries at 22%, as the ECB officially recognized the shift on June 2.
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• Inflation redefined: Warsh ties price stability to public perception rather than the 2% target, stating it exists when "no one's talking about it,"...

• Treasury Secretary Bessent calls inflation surge a "short-term blip" tied to Iran war energy costs
• Fed Beige Book shows most districts reporting...

US Inflation and Fed Policy

• 🔥 Beige Book Highlights Inflation Surge: Fed's Beige Book reports higher inflation from late April to late May...