Global Macro Digest

ECB本周预计加息25bp，将存款便利利率升至2.5%，因通胀升至3.3%且经济可承受紧缩。美国CPI预计维持高位，将共同推高全球利率定价。

August payrolls surged to 162,000 jobs, far above the 53,000 forecast and erasing prior weakness signals, so the Fed now pivots to the Sept. 11...

• Yield spike: 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.823% from 4.746% after August NFP
• Citi shift: Delays first cut to June 2027, replacing prior 2026...

• Yields surge across Europe: Germany's 10-year Bund reached 3.38% (highest since 2011), France's briefly topped 4.20%, and Italy's hit 4.22%
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Eurozone inflation surged to 3.3% in August, the highest in three years, driven by a 14.3% energy spike from Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz...

• ECB delivered its expected rate cut while lowering inflation and growth forecasts, with markets now pricing another 100bp of easing by end-2025.
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Geopolitical energy spikes are creating headline inflation surprises that risk delaying monetary easing across Europe, even as underlying pressures...

Bond prices continued to slide amid oil price spikes and public debt fears, pushing borrowing costs to multi-decade highs. This stagflationary mix raises inflation risks while lifting term premia on sovereign debt.

Swiss CPI jumped more sharply than expected to 0.8% in August, with energy prices accounting for much of the surprise.

• Bank of Canada held its key rate at 2.25% for the seventh straight meeting amid U.S. tariffs and Middle East energy shocks.
• Inflation risks are...

Middle East hostilities pushed Brent crude to $88, lifting eurozone inflation to 3.3% and triggering fresh rate-hike pricing across major central...

Markets now price strong jobs data as a potential headwind for risk assets via higher rate expectations.

• Sweet spot: 30k-70k jobs growth seen as...

The Fed has added $344B in Treasury bills over the past year, effectively restarting QE since February to support liquidity even as the overall...

The buy-the-dip band at 7,600-7,585 provides scant guidance for macro investors because it remains detached from the Fed’s completed policy...

U.S. strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz lifted Brent crude to five-week highs at $94.87, amplifying inflation concerns and driving...

Trump claimed the U.S. economy could expand at 14-20% GDP rates and urged the Fed to cut rates rather than hike, arguing strong growth does not cause...

Will the ECB hike despite the cost?

• Euro area inflation jumped to 3.3% in August from 2.9%, driven by energy prices surging to 14.3% amid the Iran...

Japan's 10-year JGB yield reached 3% on Tuesday for the first time since 1996, driven by inflation concerns from the Middle East crisis, record budget...

Resilient growth and sticky inflation are keeping pressure on the Fed as monetary and fiscal support turns more constrained.

• Debt burden rises...

Warsh's Jackson Hole speech restored Fed reaction-function credibility by affirming a firm 2% PCE target and prioritizing breadth of inflation over...