Created by Thomas G. Atkins
Daily concise brief on inflation, policy, fiscal shifts, and gold price drivers
Explore the latest content tracked by Global Macro Digest
Tight housing—far fewer homes on market, higher prices—drives sticky shelter inflation, implying higher inflation for longer than expected. This pressures Fed/ECB pivot timelines and macro repricing.
Jefferies affirmed expectations of two interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, global economist Mohit Kumar said after Fed Chair Kevin Powell's remarks. Key read on persistent dovish analyst bets amid Fed policy path.
Fiscal expansion accelerates despite DOGE cuts failing: March spending hit $548B (+3.9% YoY); FY2026 H1 at record $3.6T.
Oil pass-through drives UK inflation surprise, challenging BOE policy hold:
Gold prices dipped dramatically amid robust US economic data sparking Fed policy discussions, underscoring gold's sensitivity to US strength and reduced safe-haven flows.
UK headline inflation heads towards 4%, propelled by higher motor fuel and heating oil prices that added ~40bp – yet BOE rate hikes remain off the table for now, tempering policy divergence risks despite the oil pass-through.
Current budget and inflation surprises are linked to revisions in future U.S. fiscal paths and financing conditions, amplifying inflationary pressures on federal budgets and signaling heightened Treasury issuance risks.
Key takeaways from Warsh's Senate hearing:
Bipartisan roadblocks threaten Fed leadership transition ahead of Powell's May 15 term end:
Key macro signal: UK 2-year gilt yield hits 4.286%, up 10bp, on Warsh's Fed skepticism and potential rate cuts.
Key Hearing Highlights:
Key macro signals challenging Fed cut odds:
Today's sticky inflation, labor market risks, and rising oil prices spotlight the Fed, mirroring Volcker's late 1970s-early 1980s battle with runaway...
