Earnings beat, guidance, buybacks verified; volatility despite post-Q4 slide
Key Questions
What were AppLovin's Q4 financial results?
Q4 revenue hit $1.66B, up 66%, with EPS of $3.24-3.95 beating estimates, EBITDA margins at 84.4% (up 700bps), and AXON at 70%. FCF reached $3.95B (+91%), with $2.5B cash and ROE at 213-258%; Rule40 score was 150.
What is AppLovin's guidance for Q1 and FY25?
Q1 guidance (May 6) is $1.745-1.775B revenue (+5-7% sequential, $3.40 EPS +103% YoY), EBITDA $1.465-1.495B at 84% margins; e-comm at $235M beat. FY25 revenue is $5.48B (+70%), EPS $15.79 (+57%).
What buyback activity has AppLovin announced?
AppLovin authorized $2.58B in buybacks plus $3.28B more, supported by $2.5B cash. This underscores confidence in fundamentals amid volatility.
What is AXON 2.0 and its significance?
AXON 2.0 doubles the e-comm TAM with high stickiness, replicating 'money-printing' success from AI platforms into e-commerce. Seeking Alpha notes its moat in mediation.
Why is there volatility in AppLovin stock despite strong earnings?
Post-Q4 slide reflects market disconnect, with strong fundamentals clashing against regulatory headwinds like SEC probes and shorts. Piper ($650), Evercore, Zacks, and Citi remain bullish ahead of the May 6 call.
Q4 $1.66B +66%, EPS $3.24-3.95 beat, EBITDA 84.4% +700bps/AXON 70%; Q1 May6 $1.745-1.775B +5-7% seq/$3.40 +103% YoY/e-comm $235M beat/BTIG $1.82B, EBITDA $1.465-1.495B 84%, FY25 $5.48B+70%/$15.79 +57%; FCF $3.95B +91%, cash $2.5B buybacks $2.58B+$3.28B, ROE 213-258%/Rule40 150; AXON 2.0 e-comm TAM double/stickiness/Seeking Alpha moat. May6 call crucial vs shorts/SEC/vol/CloudX-Meta/Wells/Needham/Piper/Evercore/Zacks/Citi/TIKR/William Blair/Scotiabank/Wedbush/Oppen/BTIG; disconnect strong fundamentals vs price weakness.