OPEC+ Production Plunge
Key Questions
How much has OPEC+ oil production dropped recently?
OPEC+ production plunged by a record 7.88-7.89 million bpd to 20.79 million bpd in March, marking a 27% drop in the Middle East. Iraq and Saudi Arabia were among the hardest hit due to the Iran war and Hormuz disruptions.
What caused the sharp decline in OPEC+ production?
The Iran war and chaos in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted exports, leading to throttled production across OPEC members. Global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 million bpd to 97 million bpd in March amid continued attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure.
How has the Iran war affected global oil demand forecasts?
OPEC lowered its second-quarter global oil demand forecast by 500,000 bpd to 105 million bpd due to the Iran war. The IEA also slashed its oil demand growth outlook, citing contractions in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific.
What is the IEA's outlook for the oil market in 2026?
The IEA reports that global oil supply and demand are set to contract in 2026 due to the Iran war upending previous forecasts. March supply dropped sharply to 97 million bpd with ongoing Middle East disruptions.
Is the OPEC+ production cut bullish for oil markets?
The supply shock from the 7.88-7.89 million bpd drop is bullish amid disruptions, despite a notional April hike of 206,000 bpd. OPEC's MOMR remains steady on 2026/27 growth expectations.
Record 7.88-7.89M bpd drop to 20.79M bpd Mar (-27% ME) confirmed by IEA 10.1M global supply crash; Q2 demand cut 500k bpd to 105M, -80k growth flip sharpest since Covid, Apr hike notional amid Gulf cuts.