US-Iran Hormuz Blockade Crisis
Key Questions
What is the current status of the US-Iran Hormuz blockade?
The blockade persists into its third month as of mid-May, with only 10-25 ships passing per day and 14-21 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil locked in. The last tankers passed in early May, leading to insurance spikes and supertankers idling. Trump has rejected a deal, making the ceasefire shaky.
How has the Hormuz blockade impacted global oil supply?
The blockade has locked 14-21M bpd, contributing to IEA record inventory drains of -12.8M bpd since February, resulting in over 1 billion barrels lost. This has caused major global supply disruptions, with crude prices rising above $100/bbl amid US-Iran clashes. Morgan Stanley warns that oil buffers could run out before the strait reopens.
What are the economic effects on India from the Iran war-driven oil shock?
India is racing to shield its economy from sustained energy price spikes triggered by the Iran war, which has clouded its macroeconomic outlook and increased capital stress. The blockade exacerbates oil supply issues, forcing emergency measures.
How is Europe affected by the ongoing Hormuz blockade?
Europe risks oil and kerosene shortages if the blockade continues much longer, according to Rabobank. The IEA notes rapidly depleting inventories at a record pace, piling pressure on prices over the summer.
What oil price risks are projected due to the crisis?
Oil prices face $130-200/bbl risks by July due to persistent blockade and inventory depletion. Brent holds near $102/bbl amid fresh US-Iran clashes, with IEA warning of further turmoil.
Blockade persists month 3+ mid-May (10-25 ships/day, 14-21M bpd locked; last tankers early May, insurance spikes, supertankers idling); Trump rejects deal, ceasefire shaky; IEA record drains (-12.8M bpd since Feb, 1B+ bbl losses), Europe/India ripples, $130-200 risks to July.