Early Republican spending surge meets signs of Democratic House momentum

Republican strategists have reserved roughly $888 million across at least 39 House races, signaling a broad early effort to shape control of Congress. Recent polling and campaign reporting continue to show a possible Democratic advantage among likely voters, independents, and younger voters, while Trump’s Ohio rally underscores the Republican mobilization effort. Prices, trade, turnout, candidate strength, district spending, polling error, and late-cycle events leave the outcome uncertain.