U.S. federal/DoD programs, Strategic Minerals Reserve proposal, allied export controls, and multilateral coordination

The United States’ critical minerals strategy in 2026 continues to gain momentum, marked by significant expansions in infrastructure, allied cooperation, and innovative financing mechanisms. Anchored by the Strategic Minerals Reserve (SMR) and the critical minerals price floor framework, recent developments underscore an increasingly sophisticated and coordinated effort to secure resilient, diversified supply chains amid intensifying geopolitical pressures and global market volatility.

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Strategic Minerals Reserve and Price Floor Framework: Cornerstones of National Security

The $16.4 billion Strategic Minerals Reserve (SMR) remains the foundational component of U.S. efforts to safeguard against sudden global supply disruptions. By stockpiling essential minerals, the SMR not only cushions the domestic market from shocks but also signals a long-term federal commitment to critical minerals security.

Complementing the SMR, the critical minerals price floor framework continues to stabilize markets by guaranteeing minimum prices to producers. This mechanism reduces investment risk and incentivizes capacity expansion, crucial amid ongoing rare earth price surges outside China. U.S. policymakers have accelerated moves to decouple pricing benchmarks from China-linked rare earth indices, collaborating with allies to establish transparent, independent pricing systems that diminish Beijing’s influence on global markets.

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Allied Expansion and Multilateral Financing Accelerate Resilience

A major geopolitical milestone was achieved with Uzbekistan’s accession to the 54-member FORGE Alliance, significantly broadening the allied resource base. Uzbekistan’s rich rare earth and strategic mineral reserves bring critical diversification, enhancing the collective resilience of allied supply chains.

This expansion has unlocked fresh financing channels:

• The U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) and Development Finance Corporation (DFC) have rolled out dedicated funding vehicles for Uzbek mining and refining projects aligned with U.S. strategic interests.
• Investment frameworks emphasize sustainability, accelerated execution, and shared risk, reflecting a shift toward partnership-driven development rather than traditional aid models.

FORGE’s agile, alliance-integrated structure continues to outpace legacy initiatives like the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), enabling faster project deployment with deeper trilateral cooperation, including:

• The U.S.–Japan–South Korea collaboration, focused on expanding midstream refining and processing capacities.
• The U.S.–Australia Critical Minerals Alliance, concentrating on upstream mining development and technology exchange.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted the importance of these developments:

“Uzbekistan’s accession to FORGE is a pivotal step in forging a resilient allied minerals ecosystem, ensuring diverse, secure, and sustainable supply chains critical to our economic and defense security.”

Despite progress, challenges linger—most notably the ongoing U.S.–Canada dispute over rare earth export controls, which threatens North American supply chain integration and remains a top diplomatic priority.

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Domestic Regulatory and Funding Advances Spur Production and Innovation

Federal and state initiatives have accelerated critical minerals development across the U.S.:

• The Department of the Interior (DOI) finalized streamlined locatable minerals regulations, easing permitting and environmental reviews on federal lands while upholding sustainability standards—vital for mineral-rich Western states.
• The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) proposed new regulations to enable offshore critical minerals exploration and extraction on the Outer Continental Shelf, opening new geographic frontiers.
• Wyoming authorized $16 million for rare earth infrastructure, workforce development, and permitting reform. Governor Mark Gordon emphasized:

  “State initiatives like Wyoming’s are essential complements to federal programs, unlocking the full economic and strategic potential of our critical mineral resources.”

• The Department of Energy (DOE) expanded the Clean Manufacturing & Energy Innovation (CMEI) program by $134 million, supporting startups such as Cyclic Materials and Supra Elemental Recovery, which employ AI and advanced chemistry to improve recycling and refining with reduced environmental impact.
• The Department of Defense (DoD) awarded $2 million to ReElement Technologies Corporation for proprietary rare earth separation technologies, matched by $2 million from DOW, exemplifying strong public-private partnerships.
• DOE is preparing over $1 billion in new solicitations targeting accelerated mine development, processing innovation, and cross-sector technology transfer to overcome deployment bottlenecks.

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Private Sector Momentum: Major Investments and Infrastructure Expansion

Private sector activity has surged with landmark investments and infrastructure announcements:

• MP Materials (NYSE: MP) announced plans to build a $1.25 billion rare earth magnet manufacturing campus in Northlake, Texas, spanning 120 acres. This ambitious project will expand domestic magnet production capacity, critical for clean energy and defense applications, and marks a significant step towards vertical integration of rare earth processing in the U.S.
• American Rare Earths’ Halleck Creek Project in Wyoming is poised to become a key domestic rare earth supply anchor. The project’s development aligns with federal and state priorities for expanding upstream mining capacity and integrating with allied supply chains.
• Phoenix Tailings Inc. secured $40.2 million in an oversubscribed financing round, building on previous investments to scale sustainable rare earth recovery from mining waste.
• USA Rare Earth Inc. (NASDAQ: USAR) advanced integrated mining and processing with over $285 million in combined federal and state funding, including $8.2 million in Oklahoma grants and $277 million federal support. Their recent $7 million financing round with Stillwater Critical Minerals and additional PIPE capital raised investor confidence, with stock prices surging 9% after a $3.1 billion funding announcement.
• Emerging startups leveraging AI-driven processing and chemical recycling innovations are scaling rapidly, supported by DOE grants and market incentives, closing supply loops and reducing dependence on virgin materials.
• A breakthrough from Penn State University introduced greener, plant-based nanomaterials using hairy cellulose nanocrystals for rare earth recovery (notably dysprosium), promising significant environmental and efficiency gains over traditional refining methods.

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Market Mechanisms and Multilateral Integration Strengthen Supply Chain Stability

Robust market mechanisms and allied coordination continue to enhance supply chain predictability:

• The critical minerals price floor framework, together with strategic stockpiles managed under Project Vault, provides producers with reliable revenue streams, reducing the impact of price volatility and encouraging capacity development.
• Allied trilateral partnerships deepen integration across the supply chain, including the U.S.–Japan–South Korea collaboration through Aclara Resources and the U.S.–Australia Critical Minerals Alliance.
• Recycling startups and AI-enhanced technologies increasingly contribute to circularity, sustainability, and supply chain resilience.
• Consultations have begun on a critical minerals plurilateral agreement designed to complement FORGE and MSP by facilitating trade, harmonizing regulations, and coordinating joint financing among allied nations.

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Persistent Challenges: China’s Dominance, Allied Frictions, and Policy Gridlock

While progress is robust, several challenges continue to test the strategy’s resilience:

• China maintains near 90% dominance of global rare earth refining capacity. Premier Li Qiang’s recent inspection tours underscore Beijing’s strategic commitment to preserving this edge, posing a persistent challenge to U.S. and allied efforts.
• The unresolved U.S.–Canada export control dispute threatens the cohesion of North American supply chains and remains a diplomatic headache.
• Congressional gridlock on tariffs, trade policies, and funding risks stalling critical minerals initiatives, exposing fissures in bipartisan support.
• Permitting delays in the U.S. and allied countries—including Brazil—threaten to slow capacity expansions.
• In response, research into alternative feedstocks such as coal mine waste and industrial byproducts is gaining traction, offering complementary diversification paths.
• A recent executive order elevates international cooperation as a core pillar of U.S. critical minerals policy, emphasizing processed minerals where Chinese influence remains entrenched.

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Outlook: 2026 as a Defining Year for Critical Minerals Security

The trajectory of the U.S. critical minerals strategy in 2026 is marked by unprecedented scale, complexity, and multilateral engagement. The Strategic Minerals Reserve and price floor framework remain the backbone, while allied coordination—exemplified by Uzbekistan’s FORGE accession—and new multilateral financing mechanisms unlock global supply chain resilience.

Domestic regulatory reforms and major federal funding accelerate production, processing, recycling, and innovation. Meanwhile, private sector investments such as MP Materials’ Texas magnet campus and American Rare Earths’ Halleck Creek project anchor the U.S. supply chain infrastructure.

Market stabilizers and trilateral partnerships reinforce supply chain predictability and sustainability. Yet, ongoing challenges—China’s refining dominance, allied coordination frictions, congressional stalemates, and permitting bottlenecks—underscore the need for sustained diplomatic engagement, regulatory agility, and innovation.

As critical minerals become indispensable to economic security, technological leadership, and defense readiness, 2026 stands as a pivotal and contested year in the global competition for these vital resources. The success of U.S. efforts will depend on maintaining momentum across all fronts—policy, diplomacy, investment, and technology innovation—to build a resilient minerals ecosystem fit for the challenges ahead.