Policy & Market Tracker

Pentagon Escalates Anthropic Blacklisting

• 🔥 DoD Filing Defends Supply Chain Risk Label: The Trump administration, Pentagon, and Justice...

Key signals of weakening demand:

• Mortgage applications fell -10.9% WoW (vs. +3.2% prior), first decline in 5 weeks and largest since September
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The escalating DoD-Anthropic dispute underscores vulnerabilities in military AI alliances:

• Gov't fears sabotage: Anthropic could disable or alter AI...

Feb PPI surges +0.7% m/m (vs +0.3% est, +0.5% prior); core +0.5% m/m (vs +0.3% est)—pressuring Fed's soft landing.

• Phantom critique: PCE core...

Timeline of Swarmer's explosive debut signals surging demand for AI/drone defense tech:

• Day 1: Shares soar 520% on Nasdaq from $5 IPO price
• Day 2:...

Massive $166B refund battle unfolds as 18 state AGs demand Congress mandate automatic payments to 330K importers hit by illegal Trump tariffs.

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Microsoft eyes lawsuit against Amazon and OpenAI over a $50B deal, highlighted in 5 points on Hacker News. This fracture in Big Tech AI alliances underscores risks in hyperscaler partnerships.

AI outages like recent ones threaten to drop GDP by multiple percentage points in a few years, highlighting unplanned disruptions and infrastructure vulnerabilities in high-stakes environments. No one's planning ahead.

Polls find Americans recognize AI as a wealth inequality machine, fueling public skepticism amid rapid tech adoption—garnering 16 points on Hacker News.

• Weaker economy: Q4 2025 growth revised to 0.7% from 1.4%, GDP prices up to 3.8%.
• Rising divisions: Up to three governors may dissent at Powell's...

• 20x energy waste: Some firms use 20 times more energy than peers for identical output.
• Govts brace for new energy crisis while firms overlook major fixes.
• Corporate edge: Closing gaps could slash industrial energy demand, buffering shocks.

Rising policy volatility and discriminatory trade measures are eroding the predictable trading system that developing countries depend on, prompting UN and UK to demand WTO overhaul for stability and support.

Key trends in US defense AI procurement:

• OpenAI deal: Sells AI models to defense/gov agencies via Amazon cloud
• Palantir rise: Maven AI now...

• New CFR podcast: The Spillover explores how international developments shape economics, markets, and policy.
• Weekly insights: Examines ripple...

Global trade hit $35 trillion in 2025 despite tariffs, with globalization reorienting toward South-South flows driven by emerging markets—signaling resilient supply-chain adaptation amid protectionism.

U.S. government acts primarily as a regulator to ensure fair competition, while Chinese government acts as a director to achieve national strategic goals.

US Economic Indicators

• 🔥 NY Empire State Manufacturing Miss: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index declined to -0.2 in March from 7.1 previously,...

• Oil surge shifts rate cut odds lower, with Dec Fed funds at 3.4% matching prior median; dots may hit 3.6% signaling no cuts this year.
• Empire...

Escalating macro vulnerabilities in global trend:

• Liquidity slips, risks rise
• Sovereign bond issuance reached 2025 records, near highs in 2026 per OECD
  High rates amplify debt strains—watch for wider fallout.

Key implications of Trump's U.S. shift toward China:

• Markets react: Ripples through Asian financial markets via trade policy and economic...