Independent and Third-Party Candidate Surge

Analysis shows surge of independent/third-party candidates in 2026, many strategic rebrandings (former Dems in red states, former GOP in blue states) rather than true independents. Signals deepening anti-establishment sentiment and potential spoiler effects in key races. In Montana, independent Bodnar beats Republican Alme head-to-head in a poll, but only if Democrat Bankhead drops out, highlighting strategic dilemma for Democrats.