Oil, Diplomacy, and Rates Set the Intraday Volatility Regime

U.S.-Iran and U.S.-China developments continue to influence crude, Treasury yields, Fed expectations, and equity direction, but hot economic data has temporarily shifted the regime toward higher yields and risk reduction. A renewed oil or yield surge, stronger dollar, or VIX expansion would pressure technology, crypto, housing, and consumer-sensitive stocks; diplomatic progress and falling yields would restore the relief trade.