Geopolitical-driven spike and volatility in weekly mortgage rates
Key Questions
What caused the recent spike in mortgage rates?
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including Iran and the Hormuz strait, combined with oil prices and U.S. debt exceeding $100 trillion, widened MBS spreads. This led to a March 30 spike where rates hit 6.62%, the national average reaching 6.6-6.67%, the highest since August/September.
What are the current 30-year mortgage rates as of early April?
As of April 6-7, rates have fallen for six straight days, down 20-25 basis points week-over-week to 6.20-6.45%. Zillow reports 6.20-6.26%, while MRC shows 6.45%; Freddie Mac notes 6.46% last week, down from 6.52%.
How have mortgage rates trended recently?
Rates spiked to five weeks above 6% with Freddie at 6.46%, but have since declined sharply. The MBA reports a -10.5% week-over-week drop in applications amid this volatility.
What is the latest on home price growth?
ICE reports April prices up 0.4% year-over-year in March, with the Northeast strongest at +7.3% in New Haven. National inventory is up 5.6%, but NY inventory remains low at 22k units.
How are delinquencies and refinances performing?
Delinquencies stand at 3.72%. Refinances have dropped -60%, reflecting higher rates deterring borrowers despite recent declines.
What role did the jobs report play?
Strong BLS jobs data contributed to rate volatility. Despite Fed rate cuts, mortgage rates rose due to other factors like debt and geopolitics.
What are expert forecasts for 30-year rates in 2026?
Major institutions predict rates will remain elevated between 6.5% and 7.5% throughout 2026. Recent climbs and U.S. debt crisis concerns could push them higher.
How is spring housing market pressure in NY/LI?
NY inventory at 22k and Long Island median at $850k are pressuring the spring market. Regional factors like exploding taxes in LI/NJ/Westchester add to challenges.
Middle East/Iran/Hormuz/oil/debt >$100 widens MBS; Mar30 spike 6.62%, natl 6.6-6.67% highest since Aug/Sept, Freddie 6.46%/5.77% (5th wk >6%), now 7 straight days falling -20-25bps WoW to 6.19-6.45% (4/6-8 Zillow 6.20-6.26%/MRC 6.45%/MBA 6.51% -6bps); ICE Apr prices +0.4% YoY Mar/NE strongest (+7.3% New Haven), delinqs 3.72%, refi -60%; strong BLS jobs; MBA -10.5% WoW; NY inv 22k/LI $850k pressures spring.