************FOMC/ECB/BoJ/BoE/RBA/SNB hawkish持稳/pauses/zero2026 cuts+ECB Wunsch/Radev/Stournaras ready hike+BoJ pre-July+NFP wages miss/NYFed inf************
Key Questions
What is the Federal Reserve's current stance on interest rate cuts?
The Fed projects zero cuts in 2026 with 99.5% probability, supported by strong NFP at 178K (beat) but cooling wages at 3.5% (miss prior 3.7%). Powell remains hawkish amid war-driven energy inflation.
What views have ECB officials expressed on monetary policy?
ECB's Radev is ready for a rate hike, Stournaras notes sticky inflation, and Nordea predicts front-loaded 50bp hikes in Q2 2025. Wunsch approaches the April meeting with an open mind on tightening.
When might the Bank of Japan raise rates?
A former BoJ policy board member suggests a hike before July due to rising price pressures, with rates potentially reaching ~1.25%. USDJPY near 160 heightens intervention risks.
What are the interest rate levels for other major central banks?
BoE holds at 3.75%, SNB at 0%, and RBA signals a hike. These hawkish pauses or holds reflect stagflation concerns from energy disruptions.
How has recent US data influenced inflation expectations?
NY Fed's March survey shows near-term inflation jumping while long-term holds at 3.1%. NFP beat but wage miss hints at cooling, though war energy inflation pressures persist.
What is the impact on the US dollar index (DXY) and gold?
DXY slipped to 95.92-100.50 range, bullish for gold at $4680 with resistance $4650-4800. Oil at $114+ stalls cuts, supporting hawkish policy.
What key upcoming data could influence markets?
FOMC minutes, PCE, and CPI are critical amid stagflation risks. Robust jobs dim rate-cut hopes, pressuring gold ETFs and CFTC positioning.
Why are central banks maintaining hawkish stances?
Geopolitical tensions, energy inflation spikes, and sticky projections outweigh supply shocks, per Powell. Swiss forecasts see dollar weakening as rates stabilize, boosting gold.
Fed zero cuts99.5% NFP178K beat wages3.5%<3.7% miss/NYFed inf3.1%/Powell hawk war energy/FOMC mins loom QT Phase2 no cuts; ECB Wunsch open Apr hike/June must/Stournaras/Nagel/Lagarde sticky/Radev Apr30/Nordea50bp Q2/Commerzbank to2% amid energy disruptions; BoJ pre-July1.25%/USDJPY160; BoE3.75%/SNB0%/RBA hike; DXY95.92-99-100.50 slip/oil$114+ VIX stalls cuts; gold $4680 res$4650-4800/ETF plunge/CFTC delev; FOMC mins/PCE/CPI key stagflation.