Banking Power Watch

Jamie Dimon's public backing of Kevin Warsh's critique of the Federal Reserve signals closer alignment between major private banks and the new Fed...

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey discussed emerging risks from frontier AI models, private credit market concerns, and the central bank's...

Executive Actions on Rates and Banking

• 🔥 Trump's SLR Tool: Trump could use the supplementary leverage ratio rule to lower interest rates without...

Markets price in a 91% chance of a 25bp ECB hike in June amid 3% inflation from the Iran war, yet economists warn the private sector's demand...

Banks are misreading a regulatory recalibration toward real risk management as laxness, prompting aggressive political spending to shape outcomes.

-...

Central banks doubled gold purchases to over 1,000 tons annually in 2022-2023 not for yield or inflation hedging but as insurance against...

Central bank rate decisions transmit unevenly through energy-driven inflation and resilient growth, leaving the Fed in a data-dependent wait-and-see...

Trump's May 2026 executive order mandates citizenship checks by banks, risking widespread account freezes for immigrants, visa holders, and small...

US and EU crypto-banking rules are diverging sharply.

• United Texas Bank secured OCC approval for national charter expansion into stablecoin custody...

Fed official Musalem warns it's risky to bet that AI will ease inflation, pushing back on market hopes for technology-driven disinflation.

No significant updates today.

No significant updates today.

Fed Regulation and Independence Concerns

• 🔥 Potemkin Independence: Legal scholars view the Trump Administration’s May 19 executive order on...

Fintech "skinny charters" and stablecoins are steadily chipping away at the Fed's exclusive grip on payments and money creation.

• Skinny charters...

• Trump admin's fintech order uses a "request" to draw the Fed into regulation reviews while formally acknowledging its independence.
• Central banks...

Velocity of money kept inflation quiet despite unprecedented 2020 printing, as funds stayed parked until stimulus checks and demand boosted circulation. This mechanism shows why the Fed reacted too late to the 2021-2022 surge.

The IMF's Systemic Banking Crises Database (WP/26/94) now spans 1970-2025, delivering essential context on the frequency and severity of systemic failures. A must-read for tracking financial fragility and systemic risk.

Fed Leadership and Policy Pressures

• 🔥 Kevin Warsh Rate Cut Questions: Item directly questions whether incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh promised...

On March 9, 2023, $42 billion left Silicon Valley Bank in one day, ending with FDIC seizure by Friday.

The collapse followed nine public warning...

Kalshi launches a prediction markets lobbying push amid regulatory scrutiny, signaling its fight for legitimacy in the US landscape.