Glassnode study exposes backtest illusions
Key Questions
What did the Glassnode PiT study reveal about backtesting?
The March 2026 PiT study confirmed issues with look-ahead bias and data revisions in backtests. Tooling was released to address these problems, emphasizing the need for PiT and execution-aware testing.
Why did Bitcoin fail the ATR breakout according to the highlight?
BTC's failed ATR breakout is linked to on-chain and ETF weakness, along with a ~$75k gamma wall. This contrasts with ETH's bullish MVRV and Supertrend signals.
What are the pitfalls of using the Sharpe ratio in trading bots?
Sharpe ratio pitfalls amplify the importance of multi-metric bot testing that accounts for PiT and execution. Related content warns against over-relying on it without understanding its limitations, as explained in 'Stop Using the Sharpe Ratio Until You Watch This'.
March 2026 PiT study confirmed look-ahead/data-revision issues; tooling released. BTC failed ATR breakout ties to on-chain/ETF weakness and ~$75k gamma wall; ETH MVRV+Supertrend bullish counter. Sharpe ratio pitfalls amplify need for PiT/execution-aware multi-metric bot testing.